Trader sentiment for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 26 remains tightly clustered around 15–18°C, driven primarily by ensemble weather model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing peak highs in the mid-teens amid a cool Mediterranean air mass. Recent developments, including a weakening low-pressure system over the Levant, have nudged implied probabilities toward 16–18°C (collectively ~56%), as upper-air analyses indicate limited convective heating and sea surface temperatures near 18°C capping daytime maxima. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service averages 19°C but with high variability (±3°C standard deviation), while short-range soundings differentiate outcomes by subtle wind shear and cloud cover forecasts, explaining the razor-thin edges among leaders. Uncertainty persists until 00Z model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
16°C 19%
18°C 18%
15°C 17%
14°C 16%
11°C or below
16%
12°C
15%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
19%
17°C
19%
18°C
18%
19°C
14%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 19%
18°C 18%
15°C 17%
14°C 16%
11°C or below
16%
12°C
15%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
19%
17°C
19%
18°C
18%
19°C
14%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 26 remains tightly clustered around 15–18°C, driven primarily by ensemble weather model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing peak highs in the mid-teens amid a cool Mediterranean air mass. Recent developments, including a weakening low-pressure system over the Levant, have nudged implied probabilities toward 16–18°C (collectively ~56%), as upper-air analyses indicate limited convective heating and sea surface temperatures near 18°C capping daytime maxima. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service averages 19°C but with high variability (±3°C standard deviation), while short-range soundings differentiate outcomes by subtle wind shear and cloud cover forecasts, explaining the razor-thin edges among leaders. Uncertainty persists until 00Z model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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