Trader consensus clusters tightly around 16–19°C for Shanghai's March 22 high, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 17–18°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge bringing mild southerly flow after recent cool fronts. Differentiating factors include model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at ~16°C due to persistent cloud cover suppressing diurnal heating, while GFS implies 18–19°C with clearer skies and urban heat island amplification in the megacity. Historical March highs average 13°C but recent years trend 2–3°C warmer from climate variability; low odds for extremes reflect stable jet stream patterns minimizing advection risks. Key watch: China Meteorological Administration's 00Z update for resolution-defining station data from Pudong Observatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
18°C 26%
16°C 24%
17°C 16%
19°C 13%
$12,221 Vol.
$12,221 Vol.
11°C or below
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
8%
16°C
24%
17°C
16%
18°C
26%
19°C
13%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
3%
18°C 26%
16°C 24%
17°C 16%
19°C 13%
$12,221 Vol.
$12,221 Vol.
11°C or below
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
8%
16°C
24%
17°C
16%
18°C
26%
19°C
13%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 16–19°C for Shanghai's March 22 high, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting 17–18°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge bringing mild southerly flow after recent cool fronts. Differentiating factors include model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at ~16°C due to persistent cloud cover suppressing diurnal heating, while GFS implies 18–19°C with clearer skies and urban heat island amplification in the megacity. Historical March highs average 13°C but recent years trend 2–3°C warmer from climate variability; low odds for extremes reflect stable jet stream patterns minimizing advection risks. Key watch: China Meteorological Administration's 00Z update for resolution-defining station data from Pudong Observatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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