Trader sentiment for Denver's highest temperature on March 26 reflects model divergence in NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensembles, with a 23% implied probability for 71°F or below clashing against clustered odds for the mid-80s to 90°F+, driven by potential amplification of an upper-level ridge over the Rockies. Southerly flow and chinook wind enhancement could advect theta-e (equivalent potential temperature) northward, pushing peaks toward record territory—Denver's March average high is 57°F, but precedents like 78°F in 2023 highlight variability. Key differentiator: 500-mb geopotential height forecasts; stronger ridging favors 84-90°F outcomes (14-16.5% odds), while troughing caps at 71°F. Watch 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on March 26?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 26?
71°F or below 37%
82-83°F 16%
76-77°F 11%
74-75°F 10%
71°F or below
37%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
12%
90°F or higher
15%
71°F or below 37%
82-83°F 16%
76-77°F 11%
74-75°F 10%
71°F or below
37%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
12%
90°F or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Denver International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDEN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Denver's highest temperature on March 26 reflects model divergence in NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensembles, with a 23% implied probability for 71°F or below clashing against clustered odds for the mid-80s to 90°F+, driven by potential amplification of an upper-level ridge over the Rockies. Southerly flow and chinook wind enhancement could advect theta-e (equivalent potential temperature) northward, pushing peaks toward record territory—Denver's March average high is 57°F, but precedents like 78°F in 2023 highlight variability. Key differentiator: 500-mb geopotential height forecasts; stronger ridging favors 84-90°F outcomes (14-16.5% odds), while troughing caps at 71°F. Watch 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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