Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated within the last 24 hours, drive trader consensus toward a Tel Aviv high of 18-20°C on March 24, with 19°C leading at 30.5% implied probability amid tight clustering. Israel's Meteorological Service aligns, projecting mild conditions under a weak low-pressure trough introducing cooler maritime air from the Mediterranean, tempering typical late-March highs averaging 21-22°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breeze strength—favoring 19°C with moderate onshore winds (10-15 km/h)—versus fuller cloud cover potentially capping at 18°C or clearer skies pushing to 20°C. Model spread reflects uncertainty in boundary layer mixing, but historical data shows 70% of similar setups resolve within 1°C of ensembles. Traders eye 00Z updates for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
18°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 17%
20°C 15%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
6%
16°C
16%
17°C
15%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
23%
21°C
17%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
7%
18°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 17%
20°C 15%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
6%
16°C
16%
17°C
15%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
23%
21°C
17%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, updated within the last 24 hours, drive trader consensus toward a Tel Aviv high of 18-20°C on March 24, with 19°C leading at 30.5% implied probability amid tight clustering. Israel's Meteorological Service aligns, projecting mild conditions under a weak low-pressure trough introducing cooler maritime air from the Mediterranean, tempering typical late-March highs averaging 21-22°C. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breeze strength—favoring 19°C with moderate onshore winds (10-15 km/h)—versus fuller cloud cover potentially capping at 18°C or clearer skies pushing to 20°C. Model spread reflects uncertainty in boundary layer mixing, but historical data shows 70% of similar setups resolve within 1°C of ensembles. Traders eye 00Z updates for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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