Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23 at 41% implied probability, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild Mediterranean conditions with partly cloudy skies and light northerlies capping peaks near 20°C. Historical March data shows average highs of 21°C, but recent observations from Ben Gurion Airport logged 19-22°C amid a stabilizing high-pressure ridge, nudging odds toward 19°C (20.5%) and 21°C (16.5%). Sea breeze moderation and urban heat island effects introduce minor uncertainty, positioning sub-22°C outcomes at over 84% market-implied odds; watch IMS evening update for resolution-defining tweaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 34%
21°C 21%
19°C 16%
18°C 7%
$11,762 Vol.
$11,762 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
20%
20°C
34%
21°C
21%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 34%
21°C 21%
19°C 16%
18°C 7%
$11,762 Vol.
$11,762 Vol.
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
7%
19°C
20%
20°C
34%
21°C
21%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23 at 41% implied probability, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild Mediterranean conditions with partly cloudy skies and light northerlies capping peaks near 20°C. Historical March data shows average highs of 21°C, but recent observations from Ben Gurion Airport logged 19-22°C amid a stabilizing high-pressure ridge, nudging odds toward 19°C (20.5%) and 21°C (16.5%). Sea breeze moderation and urban heat island effects introduce minor uncertainty, positioning sub-22°C outcomes at over 84% market-implied odds; watch IMS evening update for resolution-defining tweaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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