All

Daily

Weekly

Monthly

Stocks

Stocks

Earnings

Earnings

Indices

Indices

Commodities

Commodities

Forex

Forex

Next three Fed decisions card icon

Next three Fed decisions

Cut–Cut–Pause

48%

Cut–Cut–Cut

42%

Cut–Pause–Cut

7%

Other

3%

Cut–Pause–Pause

3%

Pause–Cut–Pause

1%

Pause–Cut–Cut

<1%

$150k Vol.

repeat-3daily
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

4.6%

18%

4.8%

9%

5.0%

8%

5.2%

6%

5.5%

2%

5.7%

4%

6.0%

2%

$3m Vol.

repeat-3weekly
What price will gold close at in 2025? ($2500-3200) card icon

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($2500-3200)

<$2,500

2%

$2,500-$2,600

<1%

$2,600-$2,700

<1%

$2,700-$2,800

<1%

$2,800-$2,900

1%

$2,900-$3,000

1%

$3,000-$3,100

1%

$3,100-$3,200

2%

$3,200+

96%

$1m Vol.

Largest Company end of November? card icon

Largest Company end of November?

NVIDIA

93%

Company A

50%

Company B

50%

Company C

50%

Company D

50%

Company E

50%

Company F

50%

Company G

50%

Company H

50%

Company I

50%

Company J

50%

Company K

50%

Company L

50%

Company M

50%

Company N

50%

Company O

50%

Company P

50%

Company Q

50%

Company R

50%

Company S

50%

Company T

50%

Other

50%

Microsoft

3%

Apple

2%

Alphabet

1%

Saudi Aramco

<1%

Tesla

<1%

Amazon

<1%

$261k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

October meeting

97%

December meeting

99%

January meeting

99%

$96k Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025? card icon

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

3.9%

62%

3.8%

59%

3.7%

57%

3.6%

31%

3.5%

13%

3.0%

4%

2.0%

2%

1.0%

2%

$630k Vol.

Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

12%

25 bps decrease

41%

No change

48%

25+ bps increase

1%

$121k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting? card icon

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

0

7%

1

68%

2

19%

3

6%

4+

2%

$59k Vol.

Cardano ETF in 2025? card icon

Cardano ETF in 2025?

79%

chance

$421k Vol.

Who will acquire TikTok? card icon

Who will acquire TikTok?

Larry Ellison/Oracle

65%

Microsoft

6%

Elon Musk / X (Twitter)

5%

AppLovin

5%

Meta

4%

Amazon

3%

Walmart

2%

$406k Vol.

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? card icon

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

4%

chance

$615k Vol.

Who will replace Musk as Tesla CEO? card icon

Who will replace Musk as Tesla CEO?

No CEO announced in 2025

96%

Tom Zhu

1%

Drew Baglino

<1%

Jim Farley

<1%

Andy Jassy

<1%

William Li

<1%

Zach Kirkhorn

<1%

Lisa Su

<1%

He Xiaopeng

<1%

Tekedra Mawakana

<1%

Mary Barra

<1%

Li Bin

<1%

Dmitri Dolgov

<1%

Omead Afshar

<1%

Herbert Diess

<1%

Gwynne Shotwell

<1%

Lei Jun

<1%

Dara Khosrowshahi

<1%

JB Straubel

<1%

Person A

-

Person B

-

Person C

-

Person D

-

Person E

-

Person F

-

Person G

-

Person H

-

Person I

-

Person J

-

Person K

-

Person L

-

Person M

-

Person N

-

Person O

-

Person P

-

Person Q

-

Other

-

$356k Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2025? card icon

ECB rate cut in 2025?

13%

chance

$82k Vol.

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B

4%

500–750B

9%

750B–1T

3%

1T–1.25T

2%

1.25T–1.5T

2%

1.5T+

1%

No IPO by December 31, 2026

81%

$396k Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

13%

2 (50 bps)

20%

3 (75 bps)

21%

4 (100 bps)

13%

5 (125 bps)

7%

6 (150 bps)

5%

7 (175 bps)

5%

8 (200 bps)

4%

9 (225 bps)

2%

10 (250 bps)

3%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

8%

$18k Vol.

IPOs in 2025? card icon

IPOs in 2025?

Wealthfront

46%

Once Upon a Farm

43%

Discord

12%

Fannie Mae

10%

Freddie Mac

10%

Ramp

8%

Vanta

8%

Celonis

8%

Rippling

7%

Deel

7%

Anduril

7%

Remote

7%

Glean

7%

Applied Intuition

7%

Anysphere (Cursor)

6%

Brex

6%

Anthropic

6%

Databricks

6%

Stripe

5%

Ripple Labs

5%

Mistral AI

5%

SpaceX

5%

xAI

4%

Cerebras

4%

OpenAI

2%

$71k Vol.

No Cut October card icon

No Cut October

3%

chance

$3k Vol.

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<100B

4%

100–200B

<1%

200–300B

1%

300–400B

4%

400–600B

2%

600B+

1%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

89%

$23k Vol.

2nd Largest company end of November? card icon

2nd Largest company end of November?

Microsoft

69%

Company A

50%

Company B

50%

Company C

50%

Company D

50%

Company E

50%

Company F

50%

Company G

50%

Company H

50%

Company I

50%

Company J

50%

Company K

50%

Company L

50%

Other

50%

Apple

28%

NVIDIA

5%

Alphabet

2%

Tesla

2%

Amazon

2%

Oracle

2%

Saudi Aramco

2%

NEW

repeat-3monthly
US bank failure by November 30? card icon

US bank failure by November 30?

28%

chance

$8k Vol.

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap

<100B

4%

100–125B

8%

125–150B

12%

150–175B

9%

175–200B

9%

200–250B

10%

250B+

4%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

50%

$3k Vol.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025? card icon

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

41%

chance

$12k Vol.

Pepe ETF in 2025? card icon

Pepe ETF in 2025?

7%

chance

$108k Vol.

Next CEO of X? card icon

Next CEO of X?

No CEO announced in 2025

72%

Angela Zepeda

50%

Monique Pintarelli

50%

Person F

50%

Person G

50%

Other

50%

Elon Musk

10%

Keith Coleman

6%

Nikita Bier

5%

Jack Dorsey

4%

Grok

3%

MrBeast

3%

Sriram Krishnan

2%

Mahmoud Reza Banki

2%

John Nitti

1%

David Sacks

1%

Gwynne Shotwell

1%

Sheryl Sandberg

<1%

Jason Calacanis

<1%

John Legere

<1%

Robyn Denholm

<1%

Marissa Mayer

<1%

$256k Vol.

Kraken IPO in 2025? card icon

Kraken IPO in 2025?

5%

chance

$262k Vol.

Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap

<150B

6%

150–200B

8%

200–250B

9%

250–300B

8%

300B+

6%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

75%

$1k Vol.

OpenAI acquired in 2025? card icon

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

5%

chance

$26k Vol.

Snapchat acquired in 2025? card icon

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

5%

chance

$1k Vol.

Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap

<80B

3%

80–100B

4%

100–120B

8%

120–140B

9%

140B+

6%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

75%

$8k Vol.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025? card icon

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

10%

chance

$2k Vol.

Anthropic acquired in 2025? card icon

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

11%

chance

$5k Vol.

TBPN image

TBPN

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? card icon

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

4%

chance

$13k Vol.

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap

<200B

6%

200–250B

4%

250–300B

5%

300–350B

7%

350–400B

12%

400B+

6%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

50%

$2k Vol.

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

<15B

12%

15–20B

5%

20–25B

10%

25–30B

12%

30B+

9%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

49%

$11k Vol.

All

Daily

Weekly

Monthly

Stocks

Stocks

Earnings

Earnings

Indices

Indices

Commodities

Commodities

Forex

Forex

Next three Fed decisions card icon

Next three Fed decisions

Cut–Cut–Pause

48%

Cut–Cut–Cut

42%

Cut–Pause–Cut

7%

Other

3%

Cut–Pause–Pause

3%

Pause–Cut–Pause

1%

Pause–Cut–Cut

<1%

$150k Vol.

repeat-3daily
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

4.6%

18%

4.8%

9%

5.0%

8%

5.2%

6%

5.5%

2%

5.7%

4%

6.0%

2%

$3m Vol.

repeat-3weekly
What price will gold close at in 2025? ($2500-3200) card icon

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($2500-3200)

<$2,500

2%

$2,500-$2,600

<1%

$2,600-$2,700

<1%

$2,700-$2,800

<1%

$2,800-$2,900

1%

$2,900-$3,000

1%

$3,000-$3,100

1%

$3,100-$3,200

2%

$3,200+

96%

$1m Vol.

Largest Company end of November? card icon

Largest Company end of November?

NVIDIA

93%

Company A

50%

Company B

50%

Company C

50%

Company D

50%

Company E

50%

Company F

50%

Company G

50%

Company H

50%

Company I

50%

Company J

50%

Company K

50%

Company L

50%

Company M

50%

Company N

50%

Company O

50%

Company P

50%

Company Q

50%

Company R

50%

Company S

50%

Company T

50%

Other

50%

Microsoft

3%

Apple

2%

Alphabet

1%

Saudi Aramco

<1%

Tesla

<1%

Amazon

<1%

$261k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

October meeting

97%

December meeting

99%

January meeting

99%

$96k Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025? card icon

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

3.9%

62%

3.8%

59%

3.7%

57%

3.6%

31%

3.5%

13%

3.0%

4%

2.0%

2%

1.0%

2%

$630k Vol.

Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

12%

25 bps decrease

41%

No change

48%

25+ bps increase

1%

$121k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting? card icon

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

0

7%

1

68%

2

19%

3

6%

4+

2%

$59k Vol.

Cardano ETF in 2025? card icon

Cardano ETF in 2025?

79%

chance

$421k Vol.

Who will acquire TikTok? card icon

Who will acquire TikTok?

Larry Ellison/Oracle

65%

Microsoft

6%

Elon Musk / X (Twitter)

5%

AppLovin

5%

Meta

4%

Amazon

3%

Walmart

2%

$406k Vol.

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? card icon

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

4%

chance

$615k Vol.

Who will replace Musk as Tesla CEO? card icon

Who will replace Musk as Tesla CEO?

No CEO announced in 2025

96%

Tom Zhu

1%

Drew Baglino

<1%

Jim Farley

<1%

Andy Jassy

<1%

William Li

<1%

Zach Kirkhorn

<1%

Lisa Su

<1%

He Xiaopeng

<1%

Tekedra Mawakana

<1%

Mary Barra

<1%

Li Bin

<1%

Dmitri Dolgov

<1%

Omead Afshar

<1%

Herbert Diess

<1%

Gwynne Shotwell

<1%

Lei Jun

<1%

Dara Khosrowshahi

<1%

JB Straubel

<1%

Person A

-

Person B

-

Person C

-

Person D

-

Person E

-

Person F

-

Person G

-

Person H

-

Person I

-

Person J

-

Person K

-

Person L

-

Person M

-

Person N

-

Person O

-

Person P

-

Person Q

-

Other

-

$356k Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2025? card icon

ECB rate cut in 2025?

13%

chance

$82k Vol.

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B

4%

500–750B

9%

750B–1T

3%

1T–1.25T

2%

1.25T–1.5T

2%

1.5T+

1%

No IPO by December 31, 2026

81%

$396k Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

13%

2 (50 bps)

20%

3 (75 bps)

21%

4 (100 bps)

13%

5 (125 bps)

7%

6 (150 bps)

5%

7 (175 bps)

5%

8 (200 bps)

4%

9 (225 bps)

2%

10 (250 bps)

3%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

8%

$18k Vol.

IPOs in 2025? card icon

IPOs in 2025?

Wealthfront

46%

Once Upon a Farm

43%

Discord

12%

Fannie Mae

10%

Freddie Mac

10%

Ramp

8%

Vanta

8%

Celonis

8%

Rippling

7%

Deel

7%

Anduril

7%

Remote

7%

Glean

7%

Applied Intuition

7%

Anysphere (Cursor)

6%

Brex

6%

Anthropic

6%

Databricks

6%

Stripe

5%

Ripple Labs

5%

Mistral AI

5%

SpaceX

5%

xAI

4%

Cerebras

4%

OpenAI

2%

$71k Vol.

No Cut October card icon

No Cut October

3%

chance

$3k Vol.

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<100B

4%

100–200B

<1%

200–300B

1%

300–400B

4%

400–600B

2%

600B+

1%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

89%

$23k Vol.

2nd Largest company end of November? card icon

2nd Largest company end of November?

Microsoft

69%

Company A

50%

Company B

50%

Company C

50%

Company D

50%

Company E

50%

Company F

50%

Company G

50%

Company H

50%

Company I

50%

Company J

50%

Company K

50%

Company L

50%

Other

50%

Apple

28%

NVIDIA

5%

Alphabet

2%

Tesla

2%

Amazon

2%

Oracle

2%

Saudi Aramco

2%

NEW

repeat-3monthly
US bank failure by November 30? card icon

US bank failure by November 30?

28%

chance

$8k Vol.

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap

<100B

4%

100–125B

8%

125–150B

12%

150–175B

9%

175–200B

9%

200–250B

10%

250B+

4%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

50%

$3k Vol.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025? card icon

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

41%

chance

$12k Vol.

Pepe ETF in 2025? card icon

Pepe ETF in 2025?

7%

chance

$108k Vol.

Next CEO of X? card icon

Next CEO of X?

No CEO announced in 2025

72%

Angela Zepeda

50%

Monique Pintarelli

50%

Person F

50%

Person G

50%

Other

50%

Elon Musk

10%

Keith Coleman

6%

Nikita Bier

5%

Jack Dorsey

4%

Grok

3%

MrBeast

3%

Sriram Krishnan

2%

Mahmoud Reza Banki

2%

John Nitti

1%

David Sacks

1%

Gwynne Shotwell

1%

Sheryl Sandberg

<1%

Jason Calacanis

<1%

John Legere

<1%

Robyn Denholm

<1%

Marissa Mayer

<1%

$256k Vol.

Kraken IPO in 2025? card icon

Kraken IPO in 2025?

5%

chance

$262k Vol.

Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Freddie Mac IPO Closing Market Cap

<150B

6%

150–200B

8%

200–250B

9%

250–300B

8%

300B+

6%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

75%

$1k Vol.

OpenAI acquired in 2025? card icon

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

5%

chance

$26k Vol.

Snapchat acquired in 2025? card icon

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

5%

chance

$1k Vol.

Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap

<80B

3%

80–100B

4%

100–120B

8%

120–140B

9%

140B+

6%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

75%

$8k Vol.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025? card icon

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

10%

chance

$2k Vol.

Anthropic acquired in 2025? card icon

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

11%

chance

$5k Vol.

TBPN image

TBPN

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025? card icon

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

4%

chance

$13k Vol.

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Fannie Mae IPO Closing Market Cap

<200B

6%

200–250B

4%

250–300B

5%

300–350B

7%

350–400B

12%

400B+

6%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

50%

$2k Vol.

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap card icon

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

<15B

12%

15–20B

5%

20–25B

10%

25–30B

12%

30B+

9%

No IPO by June 30, 2026

49%

$11k Vol.