Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Milan's March 24 high temperature, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 16-19°C amid a mild late-winter air mass over northern Italy. Leading odds favor 16°C (24.5%) due to recent model runs indicating increased cloud cover and southerly winds capping peaks, versus slightly higher 18-19°C probabilities (22.5-21.5%) tied to clearer skies in warmer GFS variants. Historical March 24 highs average 14°C, but positive geopotential height anomalies suggest upside risk to 20°C+, though a potential frontal boundary introduces volatility, per ARPA Lombardia updates. Key watch: 00Z model refresh for resolution-defining details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on March 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 24?
19°C 22%
18°C 22%
22°C or higher 20.5%
20°C 17.7%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
12%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C
24%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C or higher
21%
19°C 22%
18°C 22%
22°C or higher 20.5%
20°C 17.7%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
12%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C
24%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Milan's March 24 high temperature, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering around 16-19°C amid a mild late-winter air mass over northern Italy. Leading odds favor 16°C (24.5%) due to recent model runs indicating increased cloud cover and southerly winds capping peaks, versus slightly higher 18-19°C probabilities (22.5-21.5%) tied to clearer skies in warmer GFS variants. Historical March 24 highs average 14°C, but positive geopotential height anomalies suggest upside risk to 20°C+, though a potential frontal boundary introduces volatility, per ARPA Lombardia updates. Key watch: 00Z model refresh for resolution-defining details.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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