Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?

Name: Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?
Start: 2026-03-17T10:27:43.989Z
End: 2026-03-21T12:00:00.000Z

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?

Mar 21

Mar 22

Mar 23

Mar 24

Mar 21

Mar 22

Mar 23

Mar 24

15°C 54%

16°C 25%

14°C 17%

17°C 4.0%

$89,740 Vol.

Mar 21, 2026

9°C

$5,589 Vol.

<1%

10°C

$34,137 Vol.

<1%

11°C

$8,915 Vol.

<1%

12°C

$8,146 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$5,401 Vol.

14°C

$3,675 Vol.

17%

15°C

$2,584 Vol.

54%

16°C

$2,383 Vol.

25%

17°C

$3,811 Vol.

18°C or higher

$4,245 Vol.

15°C 54%

16°C 25%

14°C 17%

17°C 4.0%

$89,740 Vol.

Mar 21, 2026

9°C

$5,589 Vol.

<1%

10°C

$34,137 Vol.

<1%

11°C

$8,915 Vol.

<1%

12°C

$8,146 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$5,401 Vol.

14°C

$3,675 Vol.

17%

15°C

$2,584 Vol.

54%

16°C

$2,383 Vol.

25%

17°C

$3,811 Vol.

18°C or higher

$4,245 Vol.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

Ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF models peg Tokyo's March 21 high at 15°C, fueling the 55% market-implied probability as traders price in mild southerly flows and urban heat island amplification. This sits above the 13.5°C historical March average, supported by recent Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies favoring warmer early spring conditions. GFS ensembles give 16°C a 28% shot amid model spread from approaching cooler air, while 14°C at 16.5% hedges downside risks from cloud cover variability. Watch JMA's evening update for refinements, as diurnal max thresholds hinge on peak afternoon instability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 1:02 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15°C" at 54%, followed by "16°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" has generated $89.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" is "15°C" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "16°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $89.7K traded on “Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 54¢ for "15°C" in the "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 54% chance that "15°C" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 54¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 46¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 21, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?" market has an active community of 61 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 21?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Comments (61)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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