Trader sentiment favors 33°C or below at 62.5% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime high of 32-33°C in Lucknow on March 25, amid cooler northerly winds suppressing typical late-March warmth. Historical data shows Lucknow's March maxima averaging 32-35°C, with recent observations logging 31°C on March 24, aligning with seasonal baselines before pre-monsoon heating ramps up. Lower odds for 37°C (14%) reflect minimal heatwave risk, as ensemble models from IMD and private forecasters like Skymet converge on mild conditions without significant upper-air anomalies. Traders eye intraday updates, with resolution hinging on official airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
33°C or below 61%
34°C 18%
35°C 13%
37°C 12%
33°C or below
61%
34°C
18%
35°C
13%
36°C
12%
37°C
12%
38°C
1%
39°C
7%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
2%
43°C or higher
1%
33°C or below 61%
34°C 18%
35°C 13%
37°C 12%
33°C or below
61%
34°C
18%
35°C
13%
36°C
12%
37°C
12%
38°C
1%
39°C
7%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
2%
43°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors 33°C or below at 62.5% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime high of 32-33°C in Lucknow on March 25, amid cooler northerly winds suppressing typical late-March warmth. Historical data shows Lucknow's March maxima averaging 32-35°C, with recent observations logging 31°C on March 24, aligning with seasonal baselines before pre-monsoon heating ramps up. Lower odds for 37°C (14%) reflect minimal heatwave risk, as ensemble models from IMD and private forecasters like Skymet converge on mild conditions without significant upper-air anomalies. Traders eye intraday updates, with resolution hinging on official airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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