Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

Name: Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
Start: 2025-11-20T23:56:10.869Z
End: 2026-04-01T00:00:00.000Z

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

14.2-14.4m sq km 93%

14.8-15m sq km 3.1%

14.4-14.6m sq km 2.8%

<14m sq km 2.7%

$22,001 Vol.

Apr 1, 2026

<14m sq km

$1,486 Vol.

14-14.2m sq km

$1,179 Vol.

14.2-14.4m sq km

$9,947 Vol.

93%

14.4-14.6m sq km

$1,322 Vol.

14.6-14.8m sq km

$1,802 Vol.

14.8-15m sq km

$800 Vol.

15m+ sq km

$5,463 Vol.

14.2-14.4m sq km 93%

14.8-15m sq km 3.1%

14.4-14.6m sq km 2.8%

<14m sq km 2.7%

$22,001 Vol.

Apr 1, 2026

<14m sq km

$1,486 Vol.

14-14.2m sq km

$1,179 Vol.

14.2-14.4m sq km

$9,947 Vol.

93%

14.4-14.6m sq km

$1,322 Vol.

14.6-14.8m sq km

$1,802 Vol.

14.8-15m sq km

$800 Vol.

15m+ sq km

$5,463 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Traders heavily favor a maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.2-14.4 million square kilometers this winter (92% market-implied probability), reflecting current NSIDC observations where November 2024 extent tracked near the 2012-2024 median and early December growth aligns with multi-model ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF projecting a March peak in this range. This positioning draws on recent stabilization around 14-14.5 million km² amid La Niña conditions favoring colder Arctic temperatures and negative Arctic Oscillation phases that compact ice. Historical satellite records (1979-present) support this as consistent with the past decade's lows, barring extremes. Challenges include sudden stratospheric warming events disrupting growth or prolonged warm Eurasian anomalies, potentially driving extent below 14 million km² as in 2017 or 2024.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 2:25 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14.2-14.4m sq km" at 93%, followed by "<14m sq km" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" has generated $22K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" is "14.2-14.4m sq km" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<14m sq km" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $22K traded on “Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 93¢ for "14.2-14.4m sq km" in the "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 93% chance that "14.2-14.4m sq km" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 93¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 7¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 1, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Comments (2)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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