Trader consensus on Ankara's March 24 high temperature hinges on a razor-thin split between 12°C (31.5% implied probability) and 11°C (29.0%), driven by ensemble forecast spread from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks near 11.5°C amid a cool northerly airflow. Ankara's continental climate typically sees March highs averaging 11-13°C, but current 500-hPa troughing favors subdued daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Recent 12Z runs show minor divergence: ECMWF slightly warmer with better insolation, GFS cooler due to persistent stratocumulus. Turkish State Meteorological Service aligns at 11-12°C max; overnight updates could tip the balance as boundary layer stability determines the 1°C margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on March 24?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 24?
12°C 32%
11°C 30%
15°C 11.0%
10°C 11%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
11%
11°C
30%
12°C
32%
13°C
9%
14°C
2%
15°C
9%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 32%
11°C 30%
15°C 11.0%
10°C 11%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
11%
11°C
30%
12°C
32%
13°C
9%
14°C
2%
15°C
9%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Ankara's March 24 high temperature hinges on a razor-thin split between 12°C (31.5% implied probability) and 11°C (29.0%), driven by ensemble forecast spread from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks near 11.5°C amid a cool northerly airflow. Ankara's continental climate typically sees March highs averaging 11-13°C, but current 500-hPa troughing favors subdued daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Recent 12Z runs show minor divergence: ECMWF slightly warmer with better insolation, GFS cooler due to persistent stratocumulus. Turkish State Meteorological Service aligns at 11-12°C max; overnight updates could tip the balance as boundary layer stability determines the 1°C margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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