Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga to win Peru's presidential election first round, with implied odds at 55%, driven by his right-wing platform emphasizing anti-crime measures amid surging violence and public discontent with President Boluarte's administration. Recent polls, including September Ipsos surveys, place López Aliaga atop the field at 12-15%, ahead of rivals like Fiorella Molinelli and Jorge Nieto, reflecting fragmented opposition and low approval for establishment figures such as Keiko Fujimori (11.5%). Key catalysts include ongoing protests, economic stagnation, and Congress debates over potential snap elections before the scheduled April 2026 vote, boosting sentiment for security-focused outsiders. Upcoming candidate registrations could shift dynamics further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRafael López Aliaga 50%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 34%
Jorge Nieto 28%
Vladimir Cerrón 26%

Rafael López Aliaga
55%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
34%

Jorge Nieto
28%

Vladimir Cerrón
26%

Roberto Chiabra
26%

Marisol Pérez Tello
26%

Enrique Valderrama
26%

Ricardo Belmont
26%

Mesías Guevara
26%

Fiorella Molinelli
25%

Yonhy Lescano
25%

José Williams
25%

Fernando Olivera
25%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
25%

Mario Vizcarra
25%

César Acuña
25%

Carlos Álvarez
25%

Alfonso López Chau
25%

José Luna
25%

Wolfgang Grozo
14%

Carlos Espá
14%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
6%
Rafael López Aliaga 50%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 34%
Jorge Nieto 28%
Vladimir Cerrón 26%

Rafael López Aliaga
55%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
34%

Jorge Nieto
28%

Vladimir Cerrón
26%

Roberto Chiabra
26%

Marisol Pérez Tello
26%

Enrique Valderrama
26%

Ricardo Belmont
26%

Mesías Guevara
26%

Fiorella Molinelli
25%

Yonhy Lescano
25%

José Williams
25%

Fernando Olivera
25%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
25%

Mario Vizcarra
25%

César Acuña
25%

Carlos Álvarez
25%

Alfonso López Chau
25%

José Luna
25%

Wolfgang Grozo
14%

Carlos Espá
14%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga to win Peru's presidential election first round, with implied odds at 55%, driven by his right-wing platform emphasizing anti-crime measures amid surging violence and public discontent with President Boluarte's administration. Recent polls, including September Ipsos surveys, place López Aliaga atop the field at 12-15%, ahead of rivals like Fiorella Molinelli and Jorge Nieto, reflecting fragmented opposition and low approval for establishment figures such as Keiko Fujimori (11.5%). Key catalysts include ongoing protests, economic stagnation, and Congress debates over potential snap elections before the scheduled April 2026 vote, boosting sentiment for security-focused outsiders. Upcoming candidate registrations could shift dynamics further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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