Trader consensus on the NYC mayor's X posts for March 24-31, 2026, clusters tightly around 20-59 range outcomes at roughly 41-42.5% implied probabilities, reflecting deep uncertainty over the 2025 election winner whose social media habits will drive the total. Incumbent Eric Adams, facing federal corruption charges since September 2024 and trailing early polls, averages 4-7 daily posts amid legal battles, projecting 30-50 weekly under steady governance. Challengers like Comptroller Brad Lander (active online critic) or potential entrant Andrew Cuomo vary in frequency, preventing clear separation. Declining Adams approval (around 28% per recent Siena polls) keeps the field open; candidate filings by April 2025 or conviction outcomes could sharpen projections by aligning odds to a frontrunner's baseline activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNYC Mayor # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
NYC Mayor # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
20-39 42%
<20 41%
40-59 41%
60-79 41%
<20
41%
20-39
42%
40-59
41%
60-79
41%
80-99
40%
100-119
41%
120-139
40%
140-159
38%
160-179
37%
180-199
40%
200+
38%
20-39 42%
<20 41%
40-59 41%
60-79 41%
<20
41%
20-39
42%
40-59
41%
60-79
41%
80-99
40%
100-119
41%
120-139
40%
140-159
38%
160-179
37%
180-199
40%
200+
38%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/NYCMayorResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/NYCMayorResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the NYC mayor's X posts for March 24-31, 2026, clusters tightly around 20-59 range outcomes at roughly 41-42.5% implied probabilities, reflecting deep uncertainty over the 2025 election winner whose social media habits will drive the total. Incumbent Eric Adams, facing federal corruption charges since September 2024 and trailing early polls, averages 4-7 daily posts amid legal battles, projecting 30-50 weekly under steady governance. Challengers like Comptroller Brad Lander (active online critic) or potential entrant Andrew Cuomo vary in frequency, preventing clear separation. Declining Adams approval (around 28% per recent Siena polls) keeps the field open; candidate filings by April 2025 or conviction outcomes could sharpen projections by aligning odds to a frontrunner's baseline activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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