Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 320-359 tweets during March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 and 340-359 each at 10.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent hyperactive X cadence averaging 40-50 posts daily amid political fervor, xAI unveils, and Tesla updates. Historical data shows peaks exceeding 400 weekly during controversies like the 2024 election, but lulls below 300 in quieter phases, fueling the tight race among upper-300s bins as the modal outcome. Key differentiators include potential spikes from government efficiency posts or SpaceX milestones versus downtime risks, with traders eyeing his post-Trump admin role for sustained volume; resolution hinges on @elonmusk originals only, excluding replies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated320-339 11%
340-359 11%
360-379 10%
280-299 9%
$573,998 Vol.
$573,998 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
7%
280-299
9%
300-319
9%
320-339
11%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
9%
400-419
6%
420-439
4%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 11%
340-359 11%
360-379 10%
280-299 9%
$573,998 Vol.
$573,998 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
3%
220-239
6%
240-259
8%
260-279
7%
280-299
9%
300-319
9%
320-339
11%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
9%
400-419
6%
420-439
4%
440-459
3%
460-479
3%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 320-359 tweets during March 24-31, 2026, with 320-339 and 340-359 each at 10.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent hyperactive X cadence averaging 40-50 posts daily amid political fervor, xAI unveils, and Tesla updates. Historical data shows peaks exceeding 400 weekly during controversies like the 2024 election, but lulls below 300 in quieter phases, fueling the tight race among upper-300s bins as the modal outcome. Key differentiators include potential spikes from government efficiency posts or SpaceX milestones versus downtime risks, with traders eyeing his post-Trump admin role for sustained volume; resolution hinges on @elonmusk originals only, excluding replies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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