Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 90-114 tweets from March 21-23, 2026, at 42% implied probability, reflecting his historical average of roughly 30-40 posts per day during non-event periods, extrapolated over three days. Recent data from late 2024 shows daily volumes stabilizing around 35 tweets amid X platform updates and AI announcements, down from election-season spikes exceeding 100 daily but up from quieter 2023 phases. Lower ranges like 65-89 (24%) account for potential lulls tied to SpaceX launches or Tesla earnings, while higher buckets fade due to no major catalysts scheduled—traders eye his unpredictable bursts driven by cultural feuds or product reveals as the key volatility factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated90-114 42%
65-89 24%
115-139 22%
40-64 6%
$750,137 Vol.
$750,137 Vol.
<40
<1%
40-64
6%
65-89
24%
90-114
42%
115-139
22%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
90-114 42%
65-89 24%
115-139 22%
40-64 6%
$750,137 Vol.
$750,137 Vol.
<40
<1%
40-64
6%
65-89
24%
90-114
42%
115-139
22%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 90-114 tweets from March 21-23, 2026, at 42% implied probability, reflecting his historical average of roughly 30-40 posts per day during non-event periods, extrapolated over three days. Recent data from late 2024 shows daily volumes stabilizing around 35 tweets amid X platform updates and AI announcements, down from election-season spikes exceeding 100 daily but up from quieter 2023 phases. Lower ranges like 65-89 (24%) account for potential lulls tied to SpaceX launches or Tesla earnings, while higher buckets fade due to no major catalysts scheduled—traders eye his unpredictable bursts driven by cultural feuds or product reveals as the key volatility factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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