Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 98.3% for NATO Article 5 invocation by March 31, driven by the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory and the brief remaining timeframe. Russia's war in Ukraine, while intensifying hybrid threats like Baltic Sea cable disruptions and airspace violations, has not spilled over to NATO members such as Poland or the Baltics, with past incidents—like a December 2024 missile overflight—deemed accidental and not warranting collective defense. Strong deterrence from NATO's 32 members and historical rarity (invoked only post-9/11) underpin this confidence. Realistic shifts could arise from an unintended escalation, such as a deliberate strike on NATO soil, though no credible indicators suggest this before the deadline.