Trader consensus in the La Paz mayoral election market positions César Dockweiler as the frontrunner at 52.5% implied probability, driven by his consistent leads in recent polls as the Comunidad Ciudadana (CC) candidate, capitalizing on anti-MAS voter dissatisfaction amid Bolivia's national political fractures. A late October poll from Ciesmori showed Dockweiler at 48%, up from prior surveys, fueled by endorsements from CC leader Carlos Mesa and strong urban mobilization. Jhonny Plata holds second at 18.9% for MAS, gaining from loyalist bases but limited by Arce-Morales infighting. Miguel Roca's 9.7% reflects niche evangelical appeal, while others lag. With voting set for early 2025, turnout and final debates loom as key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLa Paz Mayoral Election Winner (Bolivia)
La Paz Mayoral Election Winner (Bolivia)
César Dockweiler 52.6%
Jhonny Plata 19.1%
Miguel Roca 9.3%
Waldo Albarracín 6.7%
$1,718,245 Vol.
$1,718,245 Vol.

César Dockweiler
53%

Jhonny Plata
19%

Miguel Roca
9%

Waldo Albarracín
7%

Iván Arias
4%

Xavier Iturralde
4%

Carlos Eduardo Palenque
2%

Rodrigo Rivera
2%

Paul Coca
2%

Alejandro Reyes
1%

Óscar Sogliano
<1%

Pierre Chain
<1%
César Dockweiler 52.6%
Jhonny Plata 19.1%
Miguel Roca 9.3%
Waldo Albarracín 6.7%
$1,718,245 Vol.
$1,718,245 Vol.

César Dockweiler
53%

Jhonny Plata
19%

Miguel Roca
9%

Waldo Albarracín
7%

Iván Arias
4%

Xavier Iturralde
4%

Carlos Eduardo Palenque
2%

Rodrigo Rivera
2%

Paul Coca
2%

Alejandro Reyes
1%

Óscar Sogliano
<1%

Pierre Chain
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the La Paz mayoral election market positions César Dockweiler as the frontrunner at 52.5% implied probability, driven by his consistent leads in recent polls as the Comunidad Ciudadana (CC) candidate, capitalizing on anti-MAS voter dissatisfaction amid Bolivia's national political fractures. A late October poll from Ciesmori showed Dockweiler at 48%, up from prior surveys, fueled by endorsements from CC leader Carlos Mesa and strong urban mobilization. Jhonny Plata holds second at 18.9% for MAS, gaining from loyalist bases but limited by Arce-Morales infighting. Miguel Roca's 9.7% reflects niche evangelical appeal, while others lag. With voting set for early 2025, turnout and final debates loom as key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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