Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Miami high temperature of 74-77°F on March 19, with 74-75°F leading at 44% implied probability, propelled by the latest National Weather Service and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 75-76°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Differentiating these tight outcomes are subtle model divergences: GFS runs hint at slightly thicker marine layer clouds capping at 74°F, while Euro ensembles suggest earlier clearing for 76-77°F, influenced by warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures near 78°F boosting low-level instability. Historical March 19 averages hover at 79°F, but a lingering weak cold front risks suppressing peaks below 75°F; watch afternoon sea breeze onset and 18z model updates for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on March 19?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 19?
74-75°F 43%
76-77°F 38%
78-79°F 8%
72-73°F 6%
$31,063 Vol.
$31,063 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
43%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 43%
76-77°F 38%
78-79°F 8%
72-73°F 6%
$31,063 Vol.
$31,063 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
43%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Miami high temperature of 74-77°F on March 19, with 74-75°F leading at 44% implied probability, propelled by the latest National Weather Service and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 75-76°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Differentiating these tight outcomes are subtle model divergences: GFS runs hint at slightly thicker marine layer clouds capping at 74°F, while Euro ensembles suggest earlier clearing for 76-77°F, influenced by warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures near 78°F boosting low-level instability. Historical March 19 averages hover at 79°F, but a lingering weak cold front risks suppressing peaks below 75°F; watch afternoon sea breeze onset and 18z model updates for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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