Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?

Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?

Ended: Mar 18

Mar 21

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Ended: Mar 18

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Mar 24

46-47°F 100.0%

33°F or below <1%

34-35°F <1%

36-37°F <1%

$0.00 Vol.

$0.00 Vol.

Mar 18, 2026

33°F or below

$0 Vol.

No

34-35°F

$0 Vol.

No

36-37°F

$0 Vol.

No

38-39°F

$0 Vol.

No

40-41°F

$0 Vol.

No

42-43°F

$0 Vol.

No

44-45°F

$0 Vol.

No

46-47°F

$0 Vol.

Yes

48-49°F

$0 Vol.

No

50-51°F

$0 Vol.

No

52°F or higher

$0 Vol.

No

46-47°F 100.0%

33°F or below <1%

34-35°F <1%

36-37°F <1%

$0.00 Vol.

$0.00 Vol.

Mar 18, 2026

33°F or below

$0 Vol.

No

34-35°F

$0 Vol.

No

36-37°F

$0 Vol.

No

38-39°F

$0 Vol.

No

40-41°F

$0 Vol.

No

42-43°F

$0 Vol.

No

44-45°F

$0 Vol.

No

46-47°F

$0 Vol.

Yes

48-49°F

$0 Vol.

No

50-51°F

$0 Vol.

No

52°F or higher

$0 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in Chicago on March 18, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre models, which converge on daytime highs in this narrow range amid persistent cool northerly flows and lingering winter-like conditions over the Midwest. Official observations show current anomalies aligning with below-average March norms—historical highs average 43°F—bolstered by high-pressure ridging suppressing warmth. This positioning reflects low model spread and verified short-range accuracy of high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) guidance. Realistic challenges include an unexpected warm front or jet streak shift, potentially lifting temps to 50°F+, though probability remains under 1% per probabilistic outputs.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 19, 2026, 8:18 AM UTC

Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "46-47°F" at 100%, followed by "33°F or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" is "46-47°F" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "33°F or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "46-47°F" in the "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "46-47°F" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?" market has an active community of 89 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Highest temperature in Chicago on March 18?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.