Recent high-resolution weather model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated within the last 24 hours, pinpoint Buenos Aires' March 25 peak temperature near 26°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, fueling trader consensus with that outcome at 25% implied probability. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon convective heating versus potential sea-breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata, with ECMWF leaning warmer toward 27°C (21.5%) and GFS cooler at 25°C (23%). Historical March 25 highs average 24.5°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional records, but above-normal early autumn warmth and low precipitation risk tilt odds against extremes below 23°C or above 29°C, as traders await 00z forecast refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
26°C 25%
25°C 22%
27°C 22%
24°C 19%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
15%
24°C
19%
25°C
22%
26°C
25%
27°C
22%
28°C
16%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 25%
25°C 22%
27°C 22%
24°C 19%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
15%
24°C
19%
25°C
22%
26°C
25%
27°C
22%
28°C
16%
29°C
12%
30°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-resolution weather model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated within the last 24 hours, pinpoint Buenos Aires' March 25 peak temperature near 26°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, fueling trader consensus with that outcome at 25% implied probability. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon convective heating versus potential sea-breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata, with ECMWF leaning warmer toward 27°C (21.5%) and GFS cooler at 25°C (23%). Historical March 25 highs average 24.5°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional records, but above-normal early autumn warmth and low precipitation risk tilt odds against extremes below 23°C or above 29°C, as traders await 00z forecast refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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