Polymarket traders price a 62% implied probability for Amazon (AMZN) closing the week of March 23 above $190, driven primarily by momentum from AWS's accelerating AI cloud revenue, which surged 17% YoY in Q4 per official filings, bolstering trader consensus despite elevated capex at $75B for 2025. Recent 4% stock rally reflects e-commerce resilience amid consumer spending data, but Nasdaq rotation risks loom with 10-year yields near 4.3%. Key threshold: sustained close above $192 resistance; downside to $182 support if PCE inflation on March 28 exceeds 0.4% MoM forecast, echoing 2022 volatility where AMZN dropped 3% post-hot prints. Upcoming FOMC minutes March 26 add rate sensitivity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$180
99%
$185
91%
$190
90%
$195
88%
$200
75%
$205
55%
$210
34%
$215
19%
$220
12%
$225
9%
$230
8%
$235
1%
$240
1%
$10 Vol.
$180
99%
$185
91%
$190
90%
$195
88%
$200
75%
$205
55%
$210
34%
$215
19%
$220
12%
$225
9%
$230
8%
$235
1%
$240
1%
If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 62% implied probability for Amazon (AMZN) closing the week of March 23 above $190, driven primarily by momentum from AWS's accelerating AI cloud revenue, which surged 17% YoY in Q4 per official filings, bolstering trader consensus despite elevated capex at $75B for 2025. Recent 4% stock rally reflects e-commerce resilience amid consumer spending data, but Nasdaq rotation risks loom with 10-year yields near 4.3%. Key threshold: sustained close above $192 resistance; downside to $182 support if PCE inflation on March 28 exceeds 0.4% MoM forecast, echoing 2022 volatility where AMZN dropped 3% post-hot prints. Upcoming FOMC minutes March 26 add rate sensitivity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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