Trader consensus pins ChatGPT at 48% implied probability for the #2 free app spot in the US Apple App Store on March 20, fueled by its sustained dominance from viral generative AI usage and consistent top-10 rankings. NCAA March Madness Live (24.5%) and CBS Sports App (21.5%) surge on tournament hype post-Selection Sunday March 17, when bracket fever historically catapults live sports apps amid peak download spikes. Claude by Anthropic's fresh iOS app launch on March 11 bolsters its 7.5% odds in the AI race, challenging Gemini's minimal 0.7%, while niche plays like Freecash lag without catalysts. Daily ranking volatility and event-driven momentum keep odds fluid ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedChatGPT 47%
NCAA March Madness Live 25%
CBS Sports App: Scores & News 22%
Claude by Anthropic 7.8%
$35,241 Vol.
$35,241 Vol.

ChatGPT
47%

NCAA March Madness Live
25%

CBS Sports App: Scores & News
22%

Claude by Anthropic
8%

Google Gemini
1%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
<1%

Threads
<1%

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire
<1%
ChatGPT 47%
NCAA March Madness Live 25%
CBS Sports App: Scores & News 22%
Claude by Anthropic 7.8%
$35,241 Vol.
$35,241 Vol.

ChatGPT
47%

NCAA March Madness Live
25%

CBS Sports App: Scores & News
22%

Claude by Anthropic
8%

Google Gemini
1%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
<1%

Threads
<1%

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire
<1%
To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus pins ChatGPT at 48% implied probability for the #2 free app spot in the US Apple App Store on March 20, fueled by its sustained dominance from viral generative AI usage and consistent top-10 rankings. NCAA March Madness Live (24.5%) and CBS Sports App (21.5%) surge on tournament hype post-Selection Sunday March 17, when bracket fever historically catapults live sports apps amid peak download spikes. Claude by Anthropic's fresh iOS app launch on March 11 bolsters its 7.5% odds in the AI race, challenging Gemini's minimal 0.7%, while niche plays like Freecash lag without catalysts. Daily ranking volatility and event-driven momentum keep odds fluid ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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