US x Iran ceasefire by...?

December 31

70%

Yes70%No30%

June 30

56%

Yes56%No44%

$25M Vol.

Oscars 2026
Predictions

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

December 31

84%

Yes84%No16%

June 30

75%

Yes75%No25%

$5M Vol.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

June 30

81%

Yes81%No19%

April 30

65%

Yes65%No35%

$2M Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

Monthly

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

Monthly

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

June 30

63%

Yes63%No37%

April 30

37%

Yes37%No63%

$297K Vol.

Monthly

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

June 30

38%

Yes38%No62%

March 31

Yes8%No92%

$170K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

13%

chance

Yes

$18K Vol.

Monthly

Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?

chance

Yes

$79K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

21%

chance

Yes

$821K Vol.

Monthly

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

25%

chance

Yes

$103K Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

25%

chance

Yes

NEW

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

13%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Monthly

Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

42%

Leadership Change

Ceasefire

NEW

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

chance

Yes

$16K Vol.

All

Military Strikes

Oil

Iran Regime

Diplomacy & Ceasefire

Strait of Hormuz

Regional Spillover

U.S. x Iran

Iran Offensive Strikes

Reza Pahlavi

Lebanon

Nuclear

Israel x Iran

Kurds