Name: Largest company end of October?
Start: 2025-09-29T22:29:04.297976Z
End: 2025-10-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NVIDIA

Google

Apple

Other

Microsoft

Amazon

Oracle

Largest Company

Largest company end of October?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company end of February?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on January 31, 2025.

Largest company on January 31?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on December 31, 2025.

Largest Company end of 2025?

This is a market over which company will be the largest by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024.

Largest company on September 30?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization at the end of the year.

Largest Company end of 2024?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company next Friday?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company end of March?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of April?

Largest company end of May?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of July?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of June?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of August?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of September?

arch Largest company end of October?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of November?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of June?

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on October 31, 2025, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by October 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between April 30, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the market capitalization of the largest publicly traded company in the world. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." 

Market cap values for both BTC and companies will be taken directly from Google Finance. If Google Finance is unavailable, a consensus of credible financial data providers will be used.

Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Wealthfront IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any S&P 500 company announces between October 1, 2:00 PM ET, and October 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a qualifying company announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from qualifying companies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between October 1, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).  

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
 
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken (US-based cryptocurrency exchange) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by Kraken to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if Kraken completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly of a named bracket for October 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 (LS)?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zcash's Market Cap exceeds Monero’s at any point by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/zcash/historical_data and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/monero/historical_data respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both Zcash and Monero.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko data, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between March 12, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

Omnicom Group is estimated to release earnings on October 14, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Omnicom Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.17. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Omnicom Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.17 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Omnicom Group releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution.
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.

Will Omnicom Group (OMC) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

Evercore is estimated to release earnings on October 22, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Evercore’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.93. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evercore reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.93 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Evercore releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.

Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings?

Exxon Mobil is estimated to release earnings on October 6, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Exxon Mobil’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.75. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Exxon Mobil reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.75 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Exxon Mobil releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution.
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.

Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?

Dow is estimated to release earnings on October 23, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Dow’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dow reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.30 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Dow releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.

Largest company end of October?

NVIDIA
$198,125 Vol.
99%
0123456789
%

Apple
$528,294 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Microsoft
$91,489 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Google
$359,295 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Other
$123,330 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Amazon
$321,549 Vol.
<1%

Oracle
$97,240 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Largest company end of October?

Rules

Largest company end of October?

Market Context

Largest company end of October?

About

Related

Largest company end of October?

NVIDIA$198,125 Vol.99%0123456789%

Apple$528,294 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Microsoft$91,489 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Google$359,295 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Other$123,330 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Amazon$321,549 Vol.<1%

Oracle$97,240 Vol.<1%

Market Context

Largest company end of October?

Rules

Largest company end of October?

Market Context

Largest company end of October?

About

Related

NVIDIA
$198,125 Vol.
99%
0123456789
%

Apple
$528,294 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Microsoft
$91,489 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Google
$359,295 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Other
$123,330 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Amazon
$321,549 Vol.
<1%

Oracle
$97,240 Vol.
<1%