Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner
Start: 2025-11-13T19:34:47.997Z
End: 2026-03-17T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner

Don Tracy 91.5%

Jeannie Evans 5.1%

R. Cary Capparelli <1%

Panagioti Bartzis <1%

$597,566 Vol.

Mar 17, 2026

Don Tracy

$429,004 Vol.

91%

Jeannie Evans

$59,954 Vol.

R. Cary Capparelli

$9,099 Vol.

<1%

Panagioti Bartzis

$16,527 Vol.

<1%

Casey Chlebek

$12,265 Vol.

<1%

Lloyd Jones

$25,398 Vol.

<1%

Pamela Denise Long

$17,412 Vol.

<1%

CaSándra Claiborne

$15,719 Vol.

<1%

Doug Bennett

$12,189 Vol.

<1%

John Goodman

$0 Vol.

<1%

Jimmy Lee Tillman II

$0 Vol.

<1%

Januario Ortega

$0 Vol.

<1%

Don Tracy 91.5%

Jeannie Evans 5.1%

R. Cary Capparelli <1%

Panagioti Bartzis <1%

$597,566 Vol.

Mar 17, 2026

Don Tracy

$429,004 Vol.

91%

Jeannie Evans

$59,954 Vol.

R. Cary Capparelli

$9,099 Vol.

<1%

Panagioti Bartzis

$16,527 Vol.

<1%

Casey Chlebek

$12,265 Vol.

<1%

Lloyd Jones

$25,398 Vol.

<1%

Pamela Denise Long

$17,412 Vol.

<1%

CaSándra Claiborne

$15,719 Vol.

<1%

Doug Bennett

$12,189 Vol.

<1%

John Goodman

$0 Vol.

<1%

Jimmy Lee Tillman II

$0 Vol.

<1%

Januario Ortega

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois. If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Don Tracy's 93.2% implied probability in the Illinois Republican Senate primary reflects his designation by the district's Republican vacancy committee as the replacement nominee following the prior incumbent's resignation, positioning him as the party-backed frontrunner with unified organizational support and superior fundraising. Recent filings confirm Tracy's ballot placement, while challengers Jeannie Evans and Casey Chlebek trail amid limited visibility and resources. Trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk ahead of the March 19 primary, though a late surge from grassroots momentum, endorsement shifts, or legal challenges to the vacancy process could narrow the gap if voter turnout spikes among insurgents.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 16, 2026, 8:26 PM UTC

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

25%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

49%

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Don Tracy" at 91%, followed by "Jeannie Evans" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $597.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Don Tracy" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jeannie Evans" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $597.6K traded on “Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 91¢ for "Don Tracy" in the "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 91% chance that "Don Tracy" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 91¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 9¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner

Illinois Republican Senate Primary Winner

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