Recent polls show Democratic state Sen. Adriane Stratton holding a consistent 6-9% lead over challenger Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Illinois 17th Senate District Democratic primary, anchoring trader consensus at 99.6% for that margin on Polymarket. Stratton's edge stems from strong establishment endorsements, superior grassroots organizing in Chicago suburbs, and fundraising dominance, with Krishnamoorthi lagging despite national name recognition from his U.S. House role. Voter registration trends favor Stratton in progressive precincts, and no major scandals have emerged. Realistic challenges include a late Krishnamoorthi ad blitz boosting urban turnout or unexpected absentee ballot surges, though primary day logistics appear stable ahead of March voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedStratton 6–9% 99.4%
Stratton <3% <1%
Krishnamoorthi 9%+ <1%
Stratton 9%+ <1%
$23,859 Vol.
$23,859 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
1%
Krishnamoorthi 6–9%
<1%
Krishnamoorthi 3–6%
<1%
Krishnamoorthi <3%
<1%
Stratton <3%
1%
Stratton 3–6%
<1%
Stratton 6–9%
99%
Stratton 9%+
1%
Other
<1%
Stratton 6–9% 99.4%
Stratton <3% <1%
Krishnamoorthi 9%+ <1%
Stratton 9%+ <1%
$23,859 Vol.
$23,859 Vol.
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
$3,006 Vol.
1%
Krishnamoorthi 6–9%
$1,222 Vol.
<1%
Krishnamoorthi 3–6%
$1,632 Vol.
<1%
Krishnamoorthi <3%
$1,182 Vol.
<1%
Stratton <3%
$3,294 Vol.
1%
Stratton 3–6%
$4,713 Vol.
<1%
Stratton 6–9%
$5,170 Vol.
99%
Stratton 9%+
$2,113 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,527 Vol.
<1%
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Volume
$23,859End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$23,859End Date
Mar 17, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Democratic state Sen. Adriane Stratton holding a consistent 6-9% lead over challenger Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Illinois 17th Senate District Democratic primary, anchoring trader consensus at 99.6% for that margin on Polymarket. Stratton's edge stems from strong establishment endorsements, superior grassroots organizing in Chicago suburbs, and fundraising dominance, with Krishnamoorthi lagging despite national name recognition from his U.S. House role. Voter registration trends favor Stratton in progressive precincts, and no major scandals have emerged. Realistic challenges include a late Krishnamoorthi ad blitz boosting urban turnout or unexpected absentee ballot surges, though primary day logistics appear stable ahead of March voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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