How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Name: How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Start: 2026-03-20T00:15:55.394Z
End: 2026-04-29T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Fed

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Apr 29

1 49%

3 32%

4+ 23%

0 19%

NEW

Apr 29, 2026

$58 Vol.

13%

$0 Vol.

49%

$0 Vol.

36%

$0 Vol.

32%

$0 Vol.

23%

1 49%

3 32%

4+ 23%

0 19%

NEW

Apr 29, 2026

$58 Vol.

13%

$0 Vol.

49%

$0 Vol.

36%

$0 Vol.

32%

$0 Vol.

23%

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a single dissent (48.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting expectations of mild internal pushback amid resilient U.S. economic data and cooling inflation pressures. This sentiment is anchored by the June meeting's unanimous rate hold at 5.25-5.50%, with hawkish voices like Governors Bowman and Waller potentially dissenting against signaling faster cuts. Recent catalysts boosting 1-3 dissent odds (over 100% combined) include June CPI easing to 3% year-over-year, a blockbuster July jobs report adding 206,000 payrolls, and Powell's congressional testimony emphasizing data dependence—historical low dissent rates keep zero viable at 12.5%, but traders favor modest discord ahead of September cut odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 7:47 PM UTC

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

35%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

21%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

36%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1" at 49%, followed by "2" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" is "1" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 49¢ for "1" in the "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 49% chance that "1" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 49¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 51¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 29, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?" market has an active community of 47 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

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Comments (47)

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