Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Name: Argentina Monthly Inflation - March
Start: 2026-03-17T14:44:32.531Z
End: 2026-04-14T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Rewards 10, 4.5, 50

Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Apr 14

3.1–3.3% 34%

2.8–3.0% 30%

2.5–2.7% 27%

3.4–3.6% 7%

NEW

Apr 14, 2026

≤2.1%

$527 Vol.

2.2–2.4%

$272 Vol.

2.5–2.7%

$364 Vol.

27%

2.8–3.0%

$411 Vol.

30%

3.1–3.3%

$551 Vol.

34%

3.4–3.6%

$365 Vol.

3.7%+

$1,231 Vol.

3.1–3.3% 34%

2.8–3.0% 30%

2.5–2.7% 27%

3.4–3.6% 7%

NEW

Apr 14, 2026

≤2.1%

$527 Vol.

2.2–2.4%

$272 Vol.

2.5–2.7%

$364 Vol.

27%

2.8–3.0%

$411 Vol.

30%

3.1–3.3%

$551 Vol.

34%

3.4–3.6%

$365 Vol.

3.7%+

$1,231 Vol.

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Polymarket traders are pricing a sharp disinflation continuation for Argentina's March monthly CPI, with the top three bins—3.1–3.3% (33.5%), 2.8–3.0% (30.0%), and 2.5–2.7% (26.5%)—capturing nearly 90% of sentiment after February's 13.2% print. President Milei's fiscal austerity, peso stabilization, and temporary price freezes drive this consensus, slashing inflation from January's 20.6% amid aggressive shock therapy. The tight race reflects analyst medians around 3.1% from banks like JPMorgan and EcoGo, differentiated by upside risks from expiring supermarket caps and passthrough devaluation effects versus downside from sustained tight policy. Odds imply trader caution ahead of INDEC's imminent release, with sub-3.7% a near-certainty.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

37%

Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

48%

Will South African inflation be between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026?

36%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.1–3.3%" at 34%, followed by "2.8–3.0%" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" is "3.1–3.3%" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.8–3.0%" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Argentina Monthly Inflation - March” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 34¢ for "3.1–3.3%" in the "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 34% chance that "3.1–3.3%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 34¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 66¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 14, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March" market has a growing discussion of 8 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Argentina Monthly Inflation - March." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Argentina Monthly Inflation - March

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (8)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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