Fed Rates Odds &amp; Predictions | Polymarket

25 bps decrease

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

$373M Vol.

Monthly

Oscars 2026
Predictions

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

95%

Yes95%No5%

Michelle Bowman

Yes2%No98%

$6M Vol.

Fed decision in April?

No change

92%

Yes92%No8%

25 bps decrease

Yes6%No94%

$7M Vol.

Monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

1 (25 bps)

31%

Yes31%No69%

2 (50 bps)

25%

$9M Vol.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

56%

Pause–Pause–Cut

26%

$688K Vol.

Daily

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

99%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$2M Vol.

Daily

Fed Decision in June?

No change

61%

25 bps decrease

33%

Yes33%No67%

$1M Vol.

Monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.5%

26%

3.25%

25%

$1M Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

September Meeting

73%

Yes73%No27%

October Meeting

75%

Yes75%No25%

$2M Vol.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

chance

Yes

$27K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

May 14

March 31

$2M Vol.

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

91%

Yes91%No9%

Pause–Pause–Cut

Yes7%No93%

$158K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate hike in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

$161K Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

December 31

72%

Yes72%No28%

May 30

65%

Yes65%No35%

$54K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

20%

chance

Yes

$51K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

Yes44%No56%

4.5%

11%

Yes11%No89%

$178K Vol.

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

chance

Yes

$231K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

84%

Yes84%No16%

↓ 3.0%

56%

$679K Vol.

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

Monthly

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

61%

27%

Yes27%No73%

$24K Vol.

Daily

All

Trade War

Fed Rates

Inflation

Macro Indicators

GDP

Global Rates

Taxes

Treasuries

TSA

Housing

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

No change

99%

25 bps decrease

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

$373M Vol.

Monthly

Oscars 2026
Predictions

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

95%

Yes95%No5%

Michelle Bowman

Yes2%No98%

$6M Vol.

Fed decision in April?

No change

92%

Yes92%No8%

25 bps decrease

Yes6%No94%

$7M Vol.

Monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

1 (25 bps)

31%

Yes31%No69%

2 (50 bps)

25%

$9M Vol.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

56%

Pause–Pause–Cut

26%

$688K Vol.

Daily

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

99%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$2M Vol.

Daily

Fed Decision in June?

No change

61%

25 bps decrease

33%

Yes33%No67%

$1M Vol.

Monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3.5%

26%

3.25%

25%

$1M Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

September Meeting

73%

Yes73%No27%

October Meeting

75%

Yes75%No25%

$2M Vol.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

chance

Yes

$27K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

May 14

March 31

$2M Vol.

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

91%

Yes91%No9%

Pause–Pause–Cut

Yes7%No93%

$158K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate hike in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

$161K Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

December 31

72%

Yes72%No28%

May 30

65%

Yes65%No35%

$54K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

20%

chance

Yes

$51K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

Yes44%No56%

4.5%

11%

Yes11%No89%

$178K Vol.

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

chance

Yes

$231K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

84%

Yes84%No16%

↓ 3.0%

56%

$679K Vol.

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

chance

Yes

NEW

Monthly

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

61%