Name: Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?
Start: 2025-09-01T21:00:15.574881Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank between September 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of the West Bank between August 8 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact the ground territory of the West Bank (e.g., if a weapons depot on West Bank soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on West Bank territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.

Will Israel carry out an airstrike on the West Bank by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government formally recognizes the State of Palestine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the French government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Israel between September 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Israeli citizens or entities which do not directly target the Israeli state or members of the Israeli government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Israel within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Israel by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Israel (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Israel unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, the Israeli government officially and unambiguously acknowledges that it possesses nuclear weapons by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".  

Leaked documents, anonymous sources, or reports from non-Israeli officials will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Suwayda Governorate in Syria for military operations between July 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Suwayda Governorate will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Damascus Governorate in Syria for military operations between July 15, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Damascus Governorate will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations between Janaury 26, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Canada is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Canadian land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey between April 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Syria strikes Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates another military action on Qatari soil between September 9, 11:00 AM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "military action" includes any use of kinetic force, or intelligence/special operation executed by the Israeli military on Qatari soil (e.g., if a weapons depot on Qatari soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

If a qualifying military action is widely attributed to Israel, this market may resolve to "Yes" even if the action is not officially confirmed/acknowledged by the Israeli government. 

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Israel military action against Qatar by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on three or more different countries' soil by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of September 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Qualifying circumstances that will resolve this market to "Yes" include, for example, if all Syrian, Yemeni, and Qatari soil is hit by an Israeli missile or drone within this market's timeframe.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel is officially banned from participating in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of when it takes effect or whether it is later revoked.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government assumes administrative, military, or political control over the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET.

This includes direct governance, military occupation with administrative authority, or any formal arrangement where the U.S. exercises primary governing authority over Gaza territory.

Mere military presence including the establishment of bases, advisory roles, humanitarian missions, or support for other governing entities without the U.S. holding primary control will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. 

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 


U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of April 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will India invade Pakistan in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any Iraqi embassy or consulate between September 3, 6 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel strike Iraq by October 31?

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs.

This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method.  

Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Turkish soil or any Turkish embassy or consulate between September 9, 3 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Turkey's ground territory or any official Turkish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Turkish soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Turkish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. 

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. 

Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.

The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact a Gulf state's ground territory, embassy, or consulate.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a Gulf state's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strike on Gulf State by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Somaliland as an independent state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the U.S. government's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US recognize Somaliland in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between September 9, 3:00 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of September 9, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.

An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark , however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?

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Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?

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Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?

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Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?

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