Name: Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
Start: 2025-09-16T00:25:22.486953Z
End: 2025-10-22T20:00:00Z

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Pathward Financial is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-19. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Pathward Financial's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.29.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pathward Financial reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.29 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Pathward Financial does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Progress Software is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-29. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Progress Software's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Progress Software reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.30 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Progress Software does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Progress Software (PRGS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Accenture is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Accenture's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.99.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Accenture reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.99 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Accenture does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Cintas Corp is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-24. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Cintas Corp's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.18.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cintas Corp reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Cintas Corp does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Costco Wholesale is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Costco Wholesale's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.82.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco Wholesale reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $5.82 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Costco Wholesale does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Jabil Inc is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Jabil Inc's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.90.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jabil Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.90 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Jabil Inc does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Concentrix Corp is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Concentrix Corp's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.91.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Concentrix Corp reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.91 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Concentrix Corp does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Concentrix (CNXC) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

CarMax Inc is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for CarMax Inc's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.03.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CarMax Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if CarMax Inc does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

MillerKnoll Inc is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-23. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for MillerKnoll Inc's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.34.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MillerKnoll Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if MillerKnoll Inc does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will MillerKnoll (MLKN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Micron Tech is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-23. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Micron Tech's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.85.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron Tech reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.85 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Micron Tech does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid offers perpetual contracts for stocks by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, Hyperliquid must list at least one perpetual contract that tracks the price of a publicly traded equity or an equity index.

The contracts must be available for trading by the general public on Hyperliquid’s platform (not only test environments or internal use).

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from Hyperliquid.

Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate of -5% or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?  

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Phantom is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI shifts from its current capped-profit corporation structure to a for-profit model by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any form of fully for-profit organization—including a Benefit Corporation (B-Corp), Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), or a modification to its existing structure to remove profit caps—will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If the OpenAI non-profit relinquishes control over the for-profit business, this will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

An announcement indicating that OpenAI is merely considering the shift will not suffice; the change must officially occur.

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Pepe (https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pepe ETF in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid's daily fees exceed $8M on any day between July 15 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Defillama, specifically the "Fees by protocol version" bar chart set on "Daily" available at https://defillama.com/fees/hyperliquid 

This market will resolve once any daily bar meets the specified threshold, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has met that threshold.

The "Hyperliquid Spot Orderbook" value displayed when hovering over the bar for "31 Dec 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ceases regular publication of any of the following reports: monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Employment Cost Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, “ceases regular publication” means any of the following:

- The BLS officially announces it will no longer publish the report on its regular schedule.
- The BLS misses three consecutive scheduled releases of the report without providing the data within 30 days of each scheduled release date.
- The BLS announces that the report is discontinued, terminated, or permanently suspended.
- Legislative or executive action explicitly prohibits or defunds the publication of the report.

The following do NOT qualify as cessation:
- Temporary delays or postponements followed by subsequent publication (including delays caused by government shutdowns).
- Changes in methodology, seasonal adjustment, or calculation methods while continuing publication.
- Changes in publication frequency (e.g., monthly to quarterly) while maintaining regular releases.
- Format changes (e.g., digital-only, layout changes).
- Publishing preliminary or partial data with full data forthcoming.
- Changes to specific components within a report while the overall data series continues.
- Combining the report with other reports while still publishing the underlying data.
- BLS delays the jobs report due to a shutdown, then publishes it.
- BLS changes CPI methodology but continues publishing monthly CPI.
- BLS shifts employment data from monthly to quarterly.
- The Federal Reserve begins publishing employment data while BLS continues its own.
- BLS website outage delays posting, but data is released via other channels.
- BLS publishes preliminary data pending final adjustments.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. 

 This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.


Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is publicly announced by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET that Paradigm has invested in a funding round for Hyperunit (https://hyperunit.xyz/). Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on announcement alone regardless of whether the investment is completed.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Hyperunit or Paradigm.

Hyperunit backed by Paradigm in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cluely achieves a public valuation of $1 billion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 billion or more between June 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Cluely or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be Cluely's official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely $1B valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between September 18 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27–28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no relevant statement is released for this meeting by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, and no qualifying rate cut is announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between January 1 and market close on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Cardano (ADA) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cardano ETF in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom's daily fees exceed $5M on any day between August 19 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Defillama, specifically the "Fees and Revenue" bar chart set on "Daily" available at https://defillama.com/protocol/fees/axiom.

This market will resolve once any daily bar meets the specified threshold, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has met that threshold.

The "Fees" value displayed when hovering over the bar for "31 Dec 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Axiom daily fees above $5M in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BasedApp's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for BasedApp is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $1M in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2025, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)

Canada recession in 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met during September 2025 ET:

- Fed decreases interest rates by at least 25 bps
- Bitcoin hits $150k
- Ethereum reaches $5000

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bul.png

Bull run: September

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Will the U.S. national debt hit $38 trillion in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve if the value of the "[US] Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties" for Q3 2025 is higher than Q2 2025, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via the following source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA

Only initial releases of each quarterly value will be used for resolution. Revisions made after the initial Q3 2025 release will not be counted.

If all relevant data is not published by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution is based exclusively on the data shown in the chart linked above.

US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Rules

Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

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