Name: Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
Start: 2025-09-15T01:57:04.198134Z
End: 2025-10-02T07:00:00Z

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Accenture is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Accenture's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.99.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Accenture reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.99 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Accenture does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Concentrix Corp is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Concentrix Corp's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.91.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Concentrix Corp reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.91 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Concentrix Corp does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Concentrix (CNXC) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Cintas Corp is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-24. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Cintas Corp's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.18.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cintas Corp reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Cintas Corp does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Progress Software is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-29. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Progress Software's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Progress Software reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.30 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Progress Software does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Progress Software (PRGS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Jabil Inc is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Jabil Inc's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.90.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jabil Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.90 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Jabil Inc does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Jabil (JBL) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Pathward Financial is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-19. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Pathward Financial's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.29.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pathward Financial reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.29 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Pathward Financial does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Costco Wholesale is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Costco Wholesale's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.82.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Costco Wholesale reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $5.82 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Costco Wholesale does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

CarMax Inc is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-25. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for CarMax Inc's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.03.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CarMax Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if CarMax Inc does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Micron Tech is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-23. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for Micron Tech's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.85.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron Tech reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.85 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if Micron Tech does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from the Bloomberg Estimates (BEst EPS:Q) Earnings Per Share (EPS) field. This field reflects the consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

MillerKnoll Inc is scheduled to release earnings on 2025-09-23. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for MillerKnoll Inc's non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.34.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MillerKnoll Inc reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the summary financial earnings press release (Form 8-K) rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. 

If that figure is not included in the Form 8-K, and if MillerKnoll Inc does not release non-GAAP EPS within 45 calendar days of the scheduled earnings announcement date this market will resolve to "No."

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from Bloomberg estimates. This field reflects the consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS. The consensus estimate is the mean of sell-side analyst estimates.


Will MillerKnoll (MLKN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate of -5% or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?  

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Perplexity AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Perplexity AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Perplexity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI shifts from its current capped-profit corporation structure to a for-profit model by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any form of fully for-profit organization—including a Benefit Corporation (B-Corp), Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), or a modification to its existing structure to remove profit caps—will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If the OpenAI non-profit relinquishes control over the for-profit business, this will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

An announcement indicating that OpenAI is merely considering the shift will not suffice; the change must officially occur.

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2025, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)

Canada recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Mistral AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Mistral AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Mistral AI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Mistral by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Anthropic is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Anthropic and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Anthropic and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will resolve to the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Mistral AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Mistral AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Mistral AI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Mistral before by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ceases regular publication of any of the following reports: monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Employment Cost Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, “ceases regular publication” means any of the following:

- The BLS officially announces it will no longer publish the report on its regular schedule.
- The BLS misses three consecutive scheduled releases of the report without providing the data within 30 days of each scheduled release date.
- The BLS announces that the report is discontinued, terminated, or permanently suspended.
- Legislative or executive action explicitly prohibits or defunds the publication of the report.

The following do NOT qualify as cessation:
- Temporary delays or postponements followed by subsequent publication (including delays caused by government shutdowns).
- Changes in methodology, seasonal adjustment, or calculation methods while continuing publication.
- Changes in publication frequency (e.g., monthly to quarterly) while maintaining regular releases.
- Format changes (e.g., digital-only, layout changes).
- Publishing preliminary or partial data with full data forthcoming.
- Changes to specific components within a report while the overall data series continues.
- Combining the report with other reports while still publishing the underlying data.
- BLS delays the jobs report due to a shutdown, then publishes it.
- BLS changes CPI methodology but continues publishing monthly CPI.
- BLS shifts employment data from monthly to quarterly.
- The Federal Reserve begins publishing employment data while BLS continues its own.
- BLS website outage delays posting, but data is released via other channels.
- BLS publishes preliminary data pending final adjustments.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and OpenAI that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Pepe (https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pepe ETF in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron announce their intention to divorce between by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces a partnership with either OpenAI or Anthropic to use their AI models (such as ChatGPT or Claude) for enhancing or powering Siri on Apple devices by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The partnership must directly address Siri or voice assistant integration. General AI partnerships unrelated to Siri or non-specific mentions will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for September 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2025 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in September 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if E.J. Antoni is confirmed as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Antoni’s nomination is formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects their nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The Senate must confirm this nominee for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

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Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

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Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Accenture (ACN) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

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