Name: Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?
Start: 2025-08-28T22:52:17.389926Z
End: 2026-01-01T04:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. 

The resolution source will be public announcements from OpenAI.


Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Unit, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Unit launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meteora officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Meteora, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Meteora launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zama officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Zama, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Zama launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Ostium launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canton Network officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Canton Network, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Canton launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Anthropic is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Anthropic and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Anthropic and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the payment must be a publicly announced, official transaction involving the sending of assets or funds; exploratory or experimental transactions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Cristiano Ronaldo, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Cristiano Ronaldo launch a token by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-operated Designated Contract Market (DCM) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially launches a token by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Gavin Newsom, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Gavin Newsom launch a token in September? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid launches and performs a Hypurr NFTs airdrop by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The NFTs must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hypurr NFT airdrop by November 30?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robinhood offers tokenized versions of U.S.-listed equities to U.S.-based users for trading on its platform or an affiliated app it controls by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The tokenized equities must track the price of U.S. stocks such as those listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq. They may be structured as synthetic assets, wrapped instruments, or token representations of real equities, but do not need to confer voting rights or direct ownership.

To qualify, U.S.-based users must be able to buy or sell the tokenized equities during the market period. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be officially announced and made available for transactions by Citigroup or a subsidiary under its direct control.

The token must be actively transferrable and/or tradable; announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Citigroup and its representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Citigroup launches a USD stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Cardano (ADA) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cardano ETF in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tether insolvent in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's Llama 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Llama 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.

Llama 5 refers to a product explicitly named Llama 5.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Meta releases Llama 5 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid offers perpetual contracts for stocks by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, Hyperliquid must list at least one perpetual contract that tracks the price of a publicly traded equity or an equity index.

The contracts must be available for trading by the general public on Hyperliquid’s platform (not only test environments or internal use).

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from Hyperliquid.

Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/crypto.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

On January 28, Visa announced a partnership with X for a 2025 launch of 'X Money'. The service will allow users to, among other things, secure funding for their X Wallets, perform P2P payments, and transfer funds to their bank accounts. You can read more about that here: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/x-partners-with-visa-to-launch-x-money-later-this-year/3464796

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches 'X Money' between January 27 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If 'X Money' is made publicly available for a majority of US users exclusively through purchase or X premium it will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Limited betas will not qualify.

The feature does not have to be titled 'X Money' for this market to resolve to "Yes" so long as the feature provides one or more of the named services.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X Money launch in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Meteora's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Meteora doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 



Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

GPT ads by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained arial phenomena by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

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Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

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Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

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