Name: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Start: 2025-07-11T19:42:53.683776Z
End: 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Donald Trump

J.D. Vance

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Tulsi Gabbard

Glenn Youngkin

Donald Trump Jr.

Matt Gaetz

Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Greg Abbott

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Tucker Carlson

Brian Kemp

Byron Donalds

Ivanka Trump

Elise Stefanik

Josh Hawley

Ted Cruz

Elon Musk

Katie Britt

John Thune

Kristi Noem

Mike Pence

Tom Brady

Steve Bannon

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republcian party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace prize. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person/entity, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between June 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve to according to the if the candidate who wins the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Casey DeSantis announces that she is running for Governor of Florida in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial Election, between February 28 ET, and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Casey DeSantis will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

If Casey DeSantis definitively states that she will not run for governor, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Casey DeSantis (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Casey DeSantis run for Florida Governor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between July 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between February 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Omar Fateh in Minneapolis Mayor for Nov 3 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?

This market will resolve to according to the if the candidate who wins the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces that he will vote for Eric Adams or endorses Adams for the 2025 NYC Mayor election between June 26, and November 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for NYC Mayor, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate wins the 2025 special election for Texas's 18th Congressional District to replace former Representative Sylvester Turner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate wins the 2025 special election for Arizona's 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Raúl Grijalva. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-7 Special Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President JD Vance announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Vance must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by JD Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will JD Vance announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate wins the 2025 special election for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Mark Green. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Tennessee; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Jody Barrett win TN-7 Special Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorses for the 2025 NYC Mayor election.

If Trump does not announce an endorsement by  November 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No endorsement".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between January 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Will Trump be impeached in 2025?

The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, however if there is any ambiguity in the results this market will resolve according to official information from New York City.




Will the Democratic candidate win the  NYC mayoral election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine.

If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between June 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman leaves the Democratic Party by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes switching to the Republican Party, registering as an Independent, or affiliating with any other political party. An official announcement from Fetterman stating that he is leaving the Democratic Party or will no longer caucus with the Democrats will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.

The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from John Fetterman or a change in his registration in government records. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between September 22, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and September 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (September 22-28)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an America Party candidate wins a U.S. federal congressional or state gubernatorial election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The candidate may appear on the ballot as “America Party,” “Independent,” or with no party listed, as long as they have formally declared their affiliation with the America Party.

Expressions of interest, financial donations, or statements of ideological sympathy will not alone qualify unless accompanied by a clear claim of party affiliation.

Candidates listed on the ballot as members of another established party (e.g., Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, etc.) will not qualify, even if they express support for or claim affiliation with the American Party or Elon Musk.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing another Fed Governor before their term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request between August 25 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or raise rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump try to fire another Fed Governor by October 31?

Donald Trump is scheduled to attend the “Remembering Charlie Kirk” event at State Farm Arizona Cardinals Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on September 21, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

This market is explicitly about the scheduled “Remembering Charlie Kirk” event at State Farm Arizona Cardinals Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on September 2. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by September 22, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the video of the event.

Will Trump say "Turning Point" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between September 1 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in September?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lara Trump announces that she is running for United States senator from North Carolina in the 2025 midterm election, by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Lara Trump will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually files a nomination to run, or whether she later files a nomination.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Lara Trump (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance
$624,127 Vol.
52%
0123456789
%

Marco Rubio
$487,825 Vol.
7%

Donald Trump
$425,788 Vol.
4%

Tucker Carlson
$475,254 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Ron DeSantis
$227,301 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Tulsi Gabbard
$336,111 Vol.
3%

Glenn Youngkin
$255,265 Vol.
3%

Donald Trump Jr.
$401,348 Vol.
2%

Ivanka Trump
$284,861 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Brian Kemp
$289,170 Vol.
2%

Steve Bannon
$218,317 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$320,937 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Vivek Ramaswamy
$278,025 Vol.
1%

Nikki Haley
$306,224 Vol.
1%

Rand Paul
$205,290 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Josh Hawley
$529,488 Vol.
1%

Ted Cruz
$347,494 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Elon Musk
$1,218,974 Vol.
1%

Tom Brady
$1,425,366 Vol.
1%

Byron Donalds
$307,080 Vol.
1%

Matt Gaetz
$614,418 Vol.
1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
$487,056 Vol.
1%

Greg Abbott
$349,346 Vol.
1%

Elise Stefanik
$305,920 Vol.
1%

Katie Britt
$1,206,576 Vol.
1%

John Thune
$1,213,870 Vol.
1%

Kristi Noem
$705,787 Vol.
1%

Mike Pence
$1,167,571 Vol.
1%

Market Context

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Rules

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market Context

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

About

Related

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance$624,127 Vol.52%0123456789%

Marco Rubio$487,825 Vol.7%

Donald Trump$425,788 Vol.4%

Tucker Carlson$475,254 Vol.4%0123456789%

Ron DeSantis$227,301 Vol.3%0123456789%

Tulsi Gabbard$336,111 Vol.3%

Glenn Youngkin$255,265 Vol.3%

Donald Trump Jr.$401,348 Vol.2%

Ivanka Trump$284,861 Vol.2%0123456789%

Brian Kemp$289,170 Vol.2%

Steve Bannon$218,317 Vol.2%0123456789%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.$320,937 Vol.1%0123456789%

Vivek Ramaswamy$278,025 Vol.1%

Nikki Haley$306,224 Vol.1%

Rand Paul$205,290 Vol.1%0123456789%

Josh Hawley$529,488 Vol.1%

Ted Cruz$347,494 Vol.1%0123456789%

Elon Musk$1,218,974 Vol.1%

Tom Brady$1,425,366 Vol.1%

Byron Donalds$307,080 Vol.1%

Matt Gaetz$614,418 Vol.1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders$487,056 Vol.1%

Greg Abbott$349,346 Vol.1%

Elise Stefanik$305,920 Vol.1%

Katie Britt$1,206,576 Vol.1%

John Thune$1,213,870 Vol.1%

Kristi Noem$705,787 Vol.1%

Mike Pence$1,167,571 Vol.1%

Market Context

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Rules

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market Context

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

About

Related

J.D. Vance
$624,127 Vol.
52%
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%

Marco Rubio
$487,825 Vol.
7%

Donald Trump
$425,788 Vol.
4%

Tucker Carlson
$475,254 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Ron DeSantis
$227,301 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Tulsi Gabbard
$336,111 Vol.
3%

Glenn Youngkin
$255,265 Vol.
3%

Donald Trump Jr.
$401,348 Vol.
2%

Ivanka Trump
$284,861 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Brian Kemp
$289,170 Vol.
2%

Steve Bannon
$218,317 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$320,937 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Vivek Ramaswamy
$278,025 Vol.
1%

Nikki Haley
$306,224 Vol.
1%

Rand Paul
$205,290 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Josh Hawley
$529,488 Vol.
1%

Ted Cruz
$347,494 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Elon Musk
$1,218,974 Vol.
1%

Tom Brady
$1,425,366 Vol.
1%

Byron Donalds
$307,080 Vol.
1%

Matt Gaetz
$614,418 Vol.
1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
$487,056 Vol.
1%

Greg Abbott
$349,346 Vol.
1%

Elise Stefanik
$305,920 Vol.
1%

Katie Britt
$1,206,576 Vol.
1%

John Thune
$1,213,870 Vol.
1%

Kristi Noem
$705,787 Vol.
1%

Mike Pence
$1,167,571 Vol.
1%