Next three Fed decisions
$153,930 Vol.
Cut–Cut–Pause 47%
Cut–Cut–Cut 42%
Cut–Pause–Cut 7%
Other 2.6%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Cut–Pause
$10,736 Vol.
47%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$10,736 Vol.
47%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$12,103 Vol.
42%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$12,103 Vol.
42%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$4,595 Vol.
7%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$4,595 Vol.
7%
Other
$3,788 Vol.
3%
Other
$3,788 Vol.
3%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$3,669 Vol.
3%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$3,669 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$116,800 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$116,800 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$2,239 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$2,239 Vol.
<1%
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 30–31, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 30–31, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$153,930
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...$153,930 Vol.
Next three Fed decisions
Cut–Cut–Pause 47%
Cut–Cut–Cut 42%
Cut–Pause–Cut 7%
Other 2.6%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Cut–Pause
$10,736 Vol.
Cut–Cut–Cut
$12,103 Vol.
Cut–Pause–Cut
$4,595 Vol.
Other
$3,788 Vol.
Cut–Pause–Pause
$3,669 Vol.
Pause–Cut–Pause
$116,800 Vol.
Pause–Cut–Cut
$2,239 Vol.
About
Volume
$153,930
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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Beware of external links.