Next three Fed decisions
$161,176 Vol.
Cut–Cut–Pause 48%
Cut–Cut–Cut 41%
Cut–Pause–Cut 6%
Other 2.6%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Cut–Pause
$11,659 Vol.
48%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$11,659 Vol.
48%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$12,208 Vol.
41%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$12,208 Vol.
41%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$4,696 Vol.
6%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$4,696 Vol.
6%
Other
$3,889 Vol.
3%
Other
$3,889 Vol.
3%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$3,770 Vol.
3%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$3,770 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$122,614 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$122,614 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$2,340 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$2,340 Vol.
<1%
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 30–31, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 30–31, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$161,176
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...$161,176 Vol.
Next three Fed decisions
Cut–Cut–Pause 48%
Cut–Cut–Cut 41%
Cut–Pause–Cut 6%
Other 2.6%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Cut–Pause
$11,659 Vol.
Cut–Cut–Cut
$12,208 Vol.
Cut–Pause–Cut
$4,696 Vol.
Other
$3,889 Vol.
Cut–Pause–Pause
$3,770 Vol.
Pause–Cut–Pause
$122,614 Vol.
Pause–Cut–Cut
$2,340 Vol.
About
Volume
$161,176
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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