Name: Lecornu out as French PM by...?
Start: 2025-09-09T21:19:32.353573Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between September 9 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

October 31

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between September 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

December 31

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

On September 8, François Bayrou was ousted as French PM after losing his confidence vote. After being appointed, the new Prime Minister may voluntarily ask for a vote of confidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next French confidence vote passes between September 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 If no vote is called by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Next French confidence vote passes?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- French election called
- Macron out as President of France
- Lecornu out as French PM
- Another France debt downgrade

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/France1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/France2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time between March 23, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pierre Poilievre or the Conservative Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron announce their intention to divorce between by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is removed from power for any length of time between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of India within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Modi out in 2025?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between May 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Fed governor announces they have resigned or will resign between August 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that a governor announce that they have resigned or will resign. Whether they actually resign will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed governor resigns by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between September 12, 6:15 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another France debt downgrade by December 31?

On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is expected to appeal the case. You can read more about that here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq40yz70qo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marine Le Pen receives a reduced sentence as a result of a formal appeal decision by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 A reduced sentence includes any official change that lessens the severity or length of the original sentence, such as a shorter prison term, a reduced fine, or restoration of Le Pen's eligibility to run for public office.

The reduced sentence must apply to the referenced case, where she was convicted of "Abuse of Public Funds".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nepal adopts a fundamentally different governing system by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "Yes" resolution requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating a clear break in continuity in the government system of Nepal. 

Qualifying circumstances include any takeover that suspends, abrogates, or displaces the 2015 Constitution at the federal level, transfers executive power to an extra-constitutional authority (e.g., a military junta, revolutionary council, or restored monarchy), or dissolves or incapacitates core federal organs, such as the House of Representatives, beyond constitutional boundaries for sustained periods of time. Moreover, any significant change in the form of government (e.g., establishment of a monarchy, a non-secular, Hindu state, or a unitary-non-federal state) will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Non-qualifying circumstances include: changes confined to provincial or local governments, constitutional amendments validly enacted under Article 274 that do not establish a change in the form of government, or any routine political events within constitutional boundaries such as prime-ministerial resignation, cabinet reshuffle, coalition re-composition, caretaker cabinets, votes of confidence, dissolution of the House, snap elections, imposition of states of emergency, army deployments or similar.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from revolutionary, rebel, or exile groups will only qualify if the Government of Nepal no longer administers the majority of the Nepalese population within Nepal for a sustained period (This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication). 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the Nepalese government fall by September 30?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Czech Republic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. 

Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify.

If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”. 

If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”.

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the the Federal Senate (Senado Federal) votes to proceed with any impeachment of Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the first such vote the Senate undertakes (e.g., if the Federal Senate decides to vote on the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes and it fails to pass, this market will resolve to "No").

This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the Senate successfully votes to proceed with this impeachment, regardless of the impeachment's outcome.

If it becomes impossible to impeach Alexandre de Moraes while he is in his role as Minister (e.g., he resigns) and the "Yes" condition has not yet been met, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Jair Bolsonaro has left Brazil for any length of time between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Jair Bolsonaro may have exited Brazilian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Brazil for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Jair Bolsonaro exits Brazilian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Moldovan government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place September 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the incoming government passes a confidence vote and is formally appointed in by the president.

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) be part of the next Government of the Moldova?

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.


Will None in 2025 occur?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Karen Bass is no longer serving as Mayor of Los Angeles for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Karen Bass's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces that he is running for President of Brazil in the 2026 presidential election, between August 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Lula will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Lula (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Ligue 1 tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Paris St-Germain finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Lebanon at any point between August 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Lebanese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Lebanese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

October 31
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December 31
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Market Context

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Rules

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Market Context

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

About

Related

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

October 31$7,701 Vol.11%0123456789%

December 31$4,711 Vol.29%0123456789%

Market Context

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Rules

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Market Context

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

About

Related

October 31
$7,701 Vol.
11%
0123456789
%

December 31
$4,711 Vol.
29%
0123456789
%