Name: Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition
Start: 2025-09-19T23:18:58.270438Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- French election called
- Macron out as President of France
- Lecornu out as French PM
- Another France debt downgrade

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between September 12, 6:15 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another France debt downgrade by December 31?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between September 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?

On September 8, François Bayrou was ousted as French PM after losing his confidence vote. After being appointed, the new Prime Minister may voluntarily ask for a vote of confidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next French confidence vote passes between September 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 If no vote is called by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Next French confidence vote passes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron announce their intention to divorce between by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- ANO wins the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election
- Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga wins the 2025 Bolivia presidential election
- LLA wins the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election
- Party for Freedom wins the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
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Elections go right: October

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met during September 2025 ET:

- Fed decreases interest rates by at least 25 bps
- Bitcoin hits $150k
- Ethereum reaches $5000

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
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Bull run: September

On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is expected to appeal the case. You can read more about that here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq40yz70qo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marine Le Pen receives a reduced sentence as a result of a formal appeal decision by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 A reduced sentence includes any official change that lessens the severity or length of the original sentence, such as a shorter prison term, a reduced fine, or restoration of Le Pen's eligibility to run for public office.

The reduced sentence must apply to the referenced case, where she was convicted of "Abuse of Public Funds".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Ligue 1 tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Paris St-Germain finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?

Guinea has scheduled a referendum to adopt a new constitution and begin a return to civilian rule for September 21, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://www.africanews.com/2025/07/03/guinea-presents-draft-for-new-constitution-referendum-set-for-september/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond January 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Guinea, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the 2025 Guinea referendum pass?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time between March 23, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pierre Poilievre or the Conservative Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?

This market will resolve according to winner of the 2025 Ballon D’Or. 

If no 2025 Ballon D’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between May 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Russia between August 25 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Russian citizens or entities which do not directly target the Russian state or members of the Russian government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Russia within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Russia (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Russia unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Moldovan government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place September 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the incoming government passes a confidence vote and is formally appointed in by the president.

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) be part of the next Government of the Moldova?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nepal adopts a fundamentally different governing system by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "Yes" resolution requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating a clear break in continuity in the government system of Nepal. 

Qualifying circumstances include any takeover that suspends, abrogates, or displaces the 2015 Constitution at the federal level, transfers executive power to an extra-constitutional authority (e.g., a military junta, revolutionary council, or restored monarchy), or dissolves or incapacitates core federal organs, such as the House of Representatives, beyond constitutional boundaries for sustained periods of time. Moreover, any significant change in the form of government (e.g., establishment of a monarchy, a non-secular, Hindu state, or a unitary-non-federal state) will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Non-qualifying circumstances include: changes confined to provincial or local governments, constitutional amendments validly enacted under Article 274 that do not establish a change in the form of government, or any routine political events within constitutional boundaries such as prime-ministerial resignation, cabinet reshuffle, coalition re-composition, caretaker cabinets, votes of confidence, dissolution of the House, snap elections, imposition of states of emergency, army deployments or similar.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from revolutionary, rebel, or exile groups will only qualify if the Government of Nepal no longer administers the majority of the Nepalese population within Nepal for a sustained period (This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication). 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the Nepalese government fall by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2025, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)

Canada recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between May 19 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

US defaults on debt in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-operated Designated Contract Market (DCM) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between August 13 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Iranian citizens or entities which do not directly target the Iranian state or members of the Iranian government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Iran (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Iran unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

EU sanctions on Iran by September 30? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Lebanon at any point between August 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Lebanese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Lebanese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lebanon coup attempt by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 12, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is removed from power for any length of time between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of India within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Modi out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 13, 2025, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

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Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

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Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

Order Book

Market Context

Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

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