Name: Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?
Start: 2025-06-02T22:17:38.035225Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?

Israel has launched a significant military offensive against Syria, targeting key locations including the Presidential Palace and General Staff HQ in Damascus, as well as preparing for extended combat operations. This escalation follows broken security agreements in Suwayda and aims to prevent a unified Syria, further complicating potential normalization of relations amidst ongoing regional tensions.

Israel Bombs Syria

Israel, who less than a week ago was bombing Iran, is now bombing the military and government in Damascus that kicked Iranian-backed forces out of Syria. Israel once again proves that will do anything to prevent a unified and stable Syria.

BREAKING: Israel launches massive attack on Syrian capital.
https://t.co/sKKkiow9fN

Israeli negotiation tactics: we will bomb your capital until you normalize with us on our terms

Israel is not working towards a de-militarized zone in southern Syria, it is working towards a re-militarized zone by Israeli proxy https://t.co/kJYVc46pxY

JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israeli Defense Forces say they are preparing for several days of combat in Syria.

After negotiating 3 security agreements with #Suwayda in 5 months &amp; all 3 being swiftly broken by Hikmat al-Hijri, #Syria's gov't is *very* unlikely to stop this time -- especially as Hijri is now on the run.

#Israel's intervention (about to sharply escalate) adds fuel to fire.

🇸🇾 Israel has bombed Syria’s Presidential Palace and General Staff HQ in Damascus — the most direct strike on Syrian leadership to date.

🇹🇷 Turkish officials reportedly urged Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to evacuate — he refused.

🇮🇱  Israeli military: “We are preparing for https://t.co/uVlbbyMYMr

🧵Some background on why Israel is bombing Syria, where the Druze fit into the story, and what it means for Israel-Syria normalisation.

——

The likelihood of Israel normalizing relations with Syria has taken a hit following the murder of Syrian Druze by Ahmed al-Shara’s https://t.co/2ESkLDrvci

Syria and Israel are reportedly engaged in quiet talks to normalize relations, with a potential peace agreement expected before the end of 2025, including discussions on the Golan Heights' status. The negotiations, facilitated by U.S. envoys and influenced by regional dynamics, also hint at broader normalization efforts involving Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords.

Syria-Israel Peace Talks

President of Syria al-Golani agrees to normalization with Israel and recognition of the Golan as Israeli and not Syrian territory.
However, some still doubt that ISIS and terrorist groups are not Mossad agents. https://t.co/7cv3GD0vr1

Optimistic noises in Israel that we may be on the brink of a breakthrough to end the war, bring all the hostages home, and normalize relations with Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. Sounds too good to be true. Please God.

"Israel and Syria are on the brink of a peace treaty. What you see happening is that you've weakened the head of the terror octopus to the point where the rest of the region is finally looking at a future where maybe there will be peace."

Scott Jennings is right. https://t.co/k1sbi9XGb0

BREAKING 🇸🇾🇮🇷🇮🇱🔥 Syrian President Al-Sharaa in talks to handover the #GolanHeight to Israeli Government after many years of Conflicts. https://t.co/XotyPP4TMe

Syria can barely function and the priority is normalization with Israel?

Now you know what the war was about in case you weren't already deprogrammed.

🇮🇱🇸🇾 SCOOP: Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, a Syrian source with knowledge of the matter tells me. 

Under the agreement, Israel will gradually withdraw from all Syrian territory it seized after December 8, 2024, including the peak of Mount

JUST IN: Israeli Foreign Minister says Israel intends to keep the Golan Heights as a condition for normalization with Syria.

The irony of Jolani giving away the Golan. https://t.co/zY7s93kRuP

🚨BREAKING: Trump and Bibi’s Bold Plan

Shortly after the Iran strikes, Trump and Netanyahu quietly agreed to a new vision:

— End Gaza war in 2 weeks
— Saudi &amp; Syrian normalization
— Abraham Accords expansion
— A 2-state framework on America and Israel’s terms

🧵 https://t.co/Fm3lZ07Tba

Wait, so Trump secured a peace between India and Pakistan, DRC and Rwanda, Israel and Iran, Syria and Lebanon want in on the Abraham Accords, is working on Ukraine and Russia, and we're supposed to believe it's not political if he doesn't get a Nobel Peace Prize?

A message to our Sunni brothers in Syria

Al-Julani has openly admitted that he is engaged in indirect negotiations with Tel Aviv.

Yesterday’s (Friday) report in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, citing Israeli sources, revealed that negotiations between Israel and Syria 'have https://t.co/9cFZQbFSEN

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who is also the special envoy for Syria, confirmed Syria and Israel are having "positive direct talks about all issues".

From an ISIS emir to an Al-Qaeda emir, to the self-appointed president to a friend of Israel: what a career.

BREAKING: Israel and Syria will sign a peace deal before the end of 2025, per i24.

Israel will withdraw from Syrian territory seized after Dec 8, 2024—including parts of Mount Hermon.

Relations will be fully normalized and the Golan Heights will become “a garden for peace.”

🚨 SCOTT JENNINGS NAILS IT: "The [Iran] ceasefire is holding. Apparently, Israel and Syria are on the brink of a peace treaty. Apparently, we're on the brink of expanding the Abraham Accords."

"I think what you see happening right now is that you've weakened the head of the https://t.co/ybuKeLxb5c

🇸🇾|🇮🇱 Al-Jolani did not protest Israel's use of Syrian airspace to attack Iran. 

According to Israeli media, Israel &amp; Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025. Traders at polymarket also see high probabilities this happens.

It looks like Al-Jolani will soon walk https://t.co/sKzKHFqsHD

Occupied Syria, the way of all 'color revolutions'. 
Yedioth Ahronoth:
•Israel and the ruling regime in Syria are preparing to normalize relations.
•The expected agreement includes official recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israeli sovereignty.
•Under the agreement, https://t.co/VzwJaFwu7K

Just IN:  Syria to join Abraham Accord and normalise relations with Israel.

BIG:  Israel and Syria aim to reach a peace deal by year’s end.

The deal includes Israel’s withdrawal from all Syrian land captured after Dec. 8.

Golan Heights would be turned into a “peace garden.”

Source: Syrian official to Israel’s Channel 12

U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA IS HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL

JOLANI IS A DISGUSTING GUY https://t.co/dTdFT1iOk4

NEW: Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, a Syrian source with knowledge of the matter tells i24News

BREAKING:

Israel and Syria are preparing to normalize relations.

The expected agreement between Syria and Israel includes the formal annexation of the Golan Heights under Israeli sovereignty. https://t.co/9M6nshe870

Zionist Rabbi Abraham Cooper revealed that he visited Syria and spent two hours in talks with self-appointed President Abu Mohamad Julani, amid reports of ongoing normalization discussions between Syria and the Israeli entity.

❗️To the daydreamers of the Muslim Brotherhood and https://t.co/sX4vAm2jpS

Jummah Mubarak to all Muslims. 

So the #Wahhabis supported their dajjalic ‘revolution’ in #Syria in order to normalise ties with Israel? 

Qaeda/ISIS/Nusra Wahhabists will forever be dogs of hell. https://t.co/ZkoCOmwoqc

JUST IN: U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA IS HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL https://t.co/CSqR5pDdT1

Saudi Arabia and Syria are reportedly moving toward normalization, with Syria expected to join the Abraham Accords and formally recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

🇺🇸🇮🇱 After the U.S. strike on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to end the Gaza war within two weeks, - Israel Hayom

UAE, Egypt, and two other Arab states will jointly govern Gaza, replacing Hamas. Leaders of the group will be exiled, hostages freed.

Saudi Arabia and Syria to https://t.co/8cXtXfllyR

Syria Envoy Tom Barrack to Al-Jazeera: Syria and Israel are quietly holding direct talks, with both sides open to normalization. Syrian officials hint peace may come by 2028. Israeli NSC Chief confirms regular contact; Damascus seeks to halt Israeli attacks in Quneitra. https://t.co/rmB9YZ1eMd

White House expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid "quiet talks"

The current Syrian head Jolani came to power as part of a CIA operation to topple the former government of Bashar al Assad. https://t.co/BHNeR1v0D6

🇸🇾 🇮🇱 U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL

U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrak reportedly revealed that Syria’s new administration is engaged in behind the scenes talks with Israel on all fronts, including recent Israeli incursions and airstrikes. 

Barrak https://t.co/FazxtBpvtd https://t.co/mFzMNzcuEw

Israeli Foreign Minister: In any normalization agreement with Syria, it will be stipulated that Israel will remain in the Golan Heights. Syrian recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan will be a good first step.  https://t.co/E0LADVlInC

According to Israeli media, Syria’s new dictator is close to a normalization deal with the Israelis:

Trump-brokered: Netanyahu and Al-Julani close to signing peace agreement | Maariv News https://t.co/h6Ectq1BA0

The White House spokeswoman declared: "We are at the dawn of a new

US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrak said the current Syrian administration is conducting quiet talks with Israel on all issues, including the Israeli Incursion and bombardment in Syria. He said the Sharaa government does not want war with Israel.”he called for giving the new

White House expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid 'quiet talks'
https://t.co/p7bzkTvRfB

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations between Janaury 26, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.

The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Syria strikes Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, the Israeli government officially and unambiguously acknowledges that it possesses nuclear weapons by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".  

Leaked documents, anonymous sources, or reports from non-Israeli officials will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey between April 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Damascus Governorate in Syria for military operations between July 15, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Damascus Governorate will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Suwayda Governorate in Syria for military operations between July 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Suwayda Governorate will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States withdraws all conventional combat forces from Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This market refers only to conventional U.S. military forces operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs), military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to "Yes," provided there are no conventional U.S. military forces actively operating in Syria.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that the United States announces all conventional combat forces have withdrawn from all Syrian territory, regardless of whether some Syrian territory remains under their control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government be a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government formally recognizes the State of Palestine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the French government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank between September 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. 

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 


U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Israel between September 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Israeli citizens or entities which do not directly target the Israeli state or members of the Israeli government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Israel within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Israel by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Israel (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Israel unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. will be withdrawing all military forces from Syria by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official policy announcements will qualify.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial withdrawal, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria before October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates another military action on Qatari soil between September 9, 11:00 AM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "military action" includes any use of kinetic force, or intelligence/special operation executed by the Israeli military on Qatari soil (e.g., if a weapons depot on Qatari soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

If a qualifying military action is widely attributed to Israel, this market may resolve to "Yes" even if the action is not officially confirmed/acknowledged by the Israeli government. 

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Another Israel military action against Qatar by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. 

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on three or more different countries' soil by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of September 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Qualifying circumstances that will resolve this market to "Yes" include, for example, if all Syrian, Yemeni, and Qatari soil is hit by an Israeli missile or drone within this market's timeframe.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Somaliland as an independent state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the U.S. government's formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US recognize Somaliland in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Turkish soil or any Turkish embassy or consulate between September 9, 3 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Turkey's ground territory or any official Turkish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Turkish soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Turkish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. 

Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. 

The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Iran Nuke in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ahmed al-Sharaa, the President of Syria, is removed from power for any length of time between July 15,, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Al-Sharaa will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of Syria within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu meets with Ahmed al-Sharaa between July 24 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Benjamin Netanyahu and Ahmed al-Sharaa are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Netanyahu meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between September 9, 3:00 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of September 9, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Hezbollah strike on Israel by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. 

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. 

Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.

The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?

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Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?

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Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations in 2025?

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