Name: First leader out of power in 2025?
Start: 2025-03-11T21:54:20.810164Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

al-Sharaa - Syria President

Meloni - Italy PM

Ishiba - Japan PM

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

Putin - Russia President

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

Macron - France President

el-Sisi - Egypt President

Trump - USA President

Starmer - UK PM

Milei - Argentina President

Newsom - California Governor

Netanyahu - Israel PM

Albanese - Australia PM

Maduro - Venezuela President

None in 2025

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

Xi - General Secretary of CCP

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

Kim - Supreme Leader of NK

First leader out of power in 2025?

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has come under intense criticism for distributing gift certificates worth 100,000 yen each to ruling party lawmakers, a move seen as a potential violation of political funding laws. The scandal has further weakened his already low approval ratings, delayed budget approvals for the next fiscal year, and prompted opposition calls for his resignation.

Ishiba Faces Gift Scandal

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba apologised on Friday for giving gift certificates to some ruling party lawmakers, a move that could hurt his administration's already low approval ratings and risk delaying passage of next fiscal year's budget. https://t.co/cPn4y9w7Tz https://t.co/temy88FeXR

Why did Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba give $670 gift certificates to lawmakers?  According to an article in Gendai, it's a long-standing practice within the LDP. 
A veteran secretary said: "If he had stronger leadership, the story would have never leaked in the first place." https://t.co/1kVstcIvI5 https://t.co/ZNDBqmoDEg

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s political standing is increasingly precarious following a fumble that has led to a second revision of the budget for fiscal 2025 and revelations that his office handed out gift vouchers. https://t.co/n3l4VhyWnC

Japan's PM Shigeru Ishiba faces backlash after gifting vouchers to ruling party lawmakers

Diksha Bisla brings you this report https://t.co/o4lHVUhOsA

A citizens group filed a complaint with the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office on Friday over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba giving gift certificates to Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers. https://t.co/tFm3IXE4jU

石破、ワイロを渡してた事を指摘され、逆ギレ会見『ボクがいつ違反したって？何時何分何秒？』
Ishiba angrily denied bribery allegations, asking, "When did I violate the law? What time, minute, second?"

https://t.co/dtpbQS47Rt
#石破 #政治資金規正法 https://t.co/auSttnEe5p

I may have underestimated the chance of Sanae Takaichi becoming PM this year #Japan  #ishiba #ldp

Opposition calls for Japan’s PM Ishiba to resign after gifting lawmakers 100,000 yen vouchers ahead of a dinner

The row puts Japan's ruling party on the backfood, months before the councillor polls

@mohammed11saleh tells you more https://t.co/tUJRPdQrsY

Editorial: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s distribution of 100,000 yen gift certificates to new LDP Diet members at dinner meeting cannot escape criticism for being thoughtless
https://t.co/aNQ5buEams

Ishiba afirmó haber usado "dinero de su bolsillo" para repartir vales de regalo a 15 legisladores del PLD antes de cenar con ellos el 3 de marzo como agradecimiento.  https://t.co/hKSAVmAf1z

El primer ministro japonés, Shigeru Ishiba, confirmó que distribuyó vales de regalo a 15 legisladores, lo que generó dudas sobre si eludió las leyes de financiamiento político  https://t.co/mNi6Cu0Fbj

Domestic media reported on Thursday that Ishiba handed gift certificates worth 100,000 yen ($673) each to lawmakers.
https://t.co/Z51mUbFM8D
https://t.co/Z51mUbFM8D

Shigeru Ishiba war als Ministerpräsident angetreten, um einen Spendenskandal in seiner Partei aufzuklären. Nun muss er sich wegen fragwürdiger Geschenke an junge Abgeordnete erklären. https://t.co/aJnCDrCFsb

ワシントン・ポストは「石破茂首相は、党内の新人議員15人にギフト券を配布したスキャンダルで批判され、既に弱体化している権力基盤が揺らいでいる」と報じた

Japan's Ishiba criticized over gifts to lawmakers months after a scandal-fueled election loss https://t.co/3e3Z7HRgAY

首相、自らの「政治とカネ」で求心力低下が浮き彫りに　参院選へ予算成立後の退陣論加熱も https://t.co/r4jaX1q2p4 @Sankei_news

「政治と金」の責任をとらせて散々自民党を衰退させてきて、ご自身も「政治と金」ですか？
@ishiba @jimin_koho

Ishiba on shaky ground over budget and gift vouchers

https://t.co/64U50Fx2sy

Opposition Blasts Ishiba Over Gift Certificates Given To LDP Lawmakers https://t.co/wgnHEjIaz4

Ishiba on shaky ground over budget and gift vouchers https://t.co/hpD0K55Se4

Ishiba on shaky ground over budget and gift vouchers https://t.co/QeHv87UfNS

Ishiba On Shaky Ground Over Budget And Gift Vouchers https://t.co/4R1FpCug6I

Prime Minister Ishiba's office gave gift certificates to new lawmakers' offices

https://t.co/ZPsqG3d2OO

Israel has ended the ceasefire with Gaza, launching a surprise bombardment that killed over 400 Palestinians, amid accusations that Prime Minister Netanyahu is using the conflict to avoid a corruption trial. Criticism mounts as internal conflicts arise, with the Shin Bet chief accusing Netanyahu of obstructing investigations and harming hostage talks, while the US administration's patience for the ongoing war appears to wane.

Israel Ceasefire Collapses

These are war crimes. And we must call it out for what it is- evil. Yes, Hamas started with the evil of Oct 7. This however is Netanyahu evil… this is not ok. https://t.co/Gra6GVvEXk

There’s no being friendly neighbours with a state like Israel because even before this surprise bombardment in which Israel killed over 400 Palestinians, just so Netanyahu could skip out on a corruption trial, Israel had violated the ceasefire agreement several times… https://t.co/uLsxUHAd2Z

As @NateB_Panic points out, with Israel's economy faltering and its society experiencing a major brain drain, the Google purchase of Wiz looks like a massive favor to Netanyahu https://t.co/hmwXxnKrP5

'It’s awful to think so many people have died to protect an old man from going to court.'
 
Caller Amanda thinks that the war in Gaza resumed to 'keep Netanyahu out of court'. 
@BenKentish https://t.co/G2fK6jkSVw

I was told Netanyahu would be out of office in 45 days. That didn’t happen and now the ceasefire is over.

Political analyst Yousef Mounayyer says that the US administration’s patience for Netanyahu continuing Israel’s war on Gaza may be running out. https://t.co/JHMS8fxg3O

Former Director of the Shin Bet, Nadav Argaman, who spoke out against the devastating actions of Netanyahu and his government, and said he'd open up about what he knows if the PM took illegal action, is now being interrogated on suspicion of extortion - at the behest of indicted https://t.co/ZsE2Nuh3FA

Israeli  🇮🇱  Shin Bet chief: Netanyahu obstructing Qatargate probe, harmed hostage talks. Ronen Bar in explosive letter: Netanyahu is acting out of foreign motives. Israeli cabinet convenes to vote on removal of Shin Bet chief.
https://t.co/HQi0d4QmKY

🚨🆕 📝

Israel just torched the ceasefire—Gaza’s bleeding out, 590 killed in 72 hours since March 18, 2025! Hamas didn’t release hostages, likely betting Israel would never stick to peace anyway—Netanyahu’s been itching to crush them since day one. Israel claims it’s all

Netanyahu will sacrifice Israel and Israelis to keep his @$$ out of prison.  Such a snake.

https://t.co/iB4jIm9jv3

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has publicly criticized US tariffs, warning they could disrupt the global economic order and stating Japan will not make significant concessions in upcoming negotiations with the US administration. Additionally, Ishiba's Cabinet faces domestic challenges with approval ratings stagnating at a low 31%, reflecting public discontent amidst economic and trade tensions.

Japan Opposes US Tariffs

Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba: US tariffs have potential to disrupt the global economic system…cannot make continuous compromises in US talks

JAPAN PM ISHIBA: US TARIFFS HAVE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT THE WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER

An MP from the left-wing Reiwa party called on Japan's Prime Minister to take the extreme measure of abolishing the consumption tax and resigning.
PM Ishiba responded, “That is certainly a novel idea," drawing laughter from ruling party lawmakers.  
https://t.co/t3xmcV1AMS

🇯🇵🇺🇸 JAPAN TO U.S.: FINE, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE YEN— AGAIN

Japan’s gearing up for another awkward trade showdown with the U.S.—and the main topic? The yen. 

Washington thinks Japan’s weak yen is basically cheating—making Japanese products too competitive.

PM Ishiba has https://t.co/K9wPpyuegq https://t.co/AUjG6IqrxA

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday his country does not plan to make big concessions and won't rush to reach a deal in upcoming tariff negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. https://t.co/nS9sg3eqf2 https://t.co/dHUFomgxE5

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet saw its approval rating stay flat at 31%, its lowest point, in the latest Yomiuri Shimbun survey.
https://t.co/kQm0ZqeJNg

Support for Japan PM Ishiba's Cabinet falls below 30% for 2nd month in row: Mainichi poll https://t.co/nQLbnmjdJ2

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet is looking to boost itself after a nationwide poll taken by The Yomiuri Shimbun shows its approval rating is 31%, unchanged from last month.
https://t.co/v8IYsO9aku

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba strongly condemns the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, expressing solidarity with India and offering condolences to the victims' families. Simultaneously, Ishiba navigates international trade tensions by engaging with China on U.S. tariff issues and planning visits to Vietnam and the Philippines to discuss security and economic concerns.

Ishiba Condemns Kashmir Attack

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba condemns the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. https://t.co/KCeZzqF4v1

Japan is both losing patience with the US and hedging its bets on trade. Hence, PM Ishiba just penned a letter to Xi requesting negotiations to elevate their trade ties. Nations will always look out for themselves, first and foremost. 
https://t.co/pMVpOiIOGR

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba condemns the terrorist attack in #Pahalgam, Kashmir

LIVE updates 🔗 https://t.co/yRbWlbdVfQ 

#PahalgamTerrorAttack #PahalgamAttack #PahalgamTerroristAttack https://t.co/ybhxRMwIek

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi announced today that PM Ishiba will be traveling to Vietnam and the Philippines from April 27-30 to discuss tariffs and strengthen security relations in light of China's maritime actions of late.

https://t.co/9JOJMbCiBF

Kyodo reports that Beijing sent a letter to PM Ishiba calling for a coordinated response to U.S. tariff measures. Premier Li Qiang's letter was delivered by PRC Ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao.  

https://t.co/BopAr5ztZJ

Japanese PM Ishiba strongly condemns the #PahalgamTerrorAttack in Kashmir.

He expressed solidarity with India and offered condolences to the victims’ families, reaffirming Japan’s commitment to stand against terrorism in all forms.

#IndiaJapan #TerrorismHasNoReligion https://t.co/E0pY8zX6hI

CDP Executive Acting Secretary General Tezuka Yoshio said today that there is an "overwhelmingly high chance" his party submits a no-confidence motion against the Ishiba Cabinet by the end of the Diet session.  

https://t.co/4P0cWQc0Vm

Chinese Premiere Li Qiang asked Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba to "fight protectionism together" amid US tariff threats.

Our expert @DavidBoling1 says China has a tendency to be more positive toward Japan when things w/ the US aren’t going well.

@gzeromedia
https://t.co/ybZXvozHUl

TV Asahi: It’s reported by Japanese media that in a letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Premier Li Qiang stood for jointly addressing U.S. tariff levies. Is it true?

FM Spokesperson Guo Jiakun: China maintains communication with other parties on tariffs. Let me https://t.co/kclKbs4kVp

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba wants to separate negotiations on tough U.S. tariffs from security-related discussions — but disentangling the two will prove a challenge. https://t.co/I2VExKe9QJ

During the first debates between ruling and opposition party leaders in the current Diet session, it was conspicuous that the opposition camp did not go on the offensive against Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
https://t.co/I07vPpUwuC https://t.co/vSxvsr5Mo1

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba grapples with multiple issues, including a rice price crisis prompting government intervention, and public health concerns as he plans to use Fukushima soil in his garden to ease radiation fears. Additionally, Ishiba faces political pressure with calls for stronger anti-spy laws, discussions on economic cooperation amidst U.S. tariffs, and efforts to bolster regional security through a Pacific Defence Pact.

Ishiba Faces Challenges

Latest poll numbers for Ishiba Cabinet &amp; LDP in May. Most polls surprisingly have passed the "Aoki's law" test of Cabinet + LDP approval &gt; 50% = stable government. Far from it but slight improvement in approval across some of the polls. https://t.co/WZCd9lbvJF

Japan’s PM to plant flowers in Fukushima soil to ease radiation fears. Shigeru Ishiba will garden with slightly radioactive soil from near the stricken nuclear power plant to prove it does not pose a danger to the public ⬇️ https://t.co/RFcgp53p3N

SK Group Chairman Tae-won Chey met with PM Ishiba yesterday and emphasized the importance of enhanced ROK-Japan economic cooperation in the face of U.S. tariff measures. Chey is also the chair of the Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

https://t.co/r51CaEocpJ

Pacific Defence Pact is the closest thing to Asian NATO so far. Follows on From Ishiba’s article last year and Nakatani’s ‘one theatre’ exchange with Hegseth last month. https://t.co/D7a9JFlilD

🔴 Ante el fuerte encarecimiento del arroz, el Gobierno japonés anunció que empezará a controlar su precio desde el próximo mes. La crisis alimentaria suma presión al primer ministro Shigeru Ishiba.
👉 https://t.co/iK1LKGI8GR
#RPPESPECIALES https://t.co/ltk1g3G87B

Anti-espionage 

On May 27, 2025, NHK reported that LDP's Sanae Takaichi urged Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to strengthen Japan's anti-spy laws, highlighting the country's weak measures compared to other nations amid rising global espionage concerns in East Asia.(1) https://t.co/roRHgUP8Dw

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.


Will None in 2025 occur?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is removed from power for any length of time between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of India within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Modi out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. 

Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify.

If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”. 

If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”.

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time between March 23, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pierre Poilievre or the Conservative Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Czech Republic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, Elon Musk, Pope Leo XIII, or Yulia Navalnaya are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them, in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners, and the prize is awarded jointly to a listed individual and a listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners, and all recipients are of the same type (e.g. all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will  Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between December 28, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- French election called
- Macron out as President of France
- Lecornu out as French PM
- Another France debt downgrade

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/France1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/France2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between September 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is removed from power for any length of time between July 6, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Vladimir Putin will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Russia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?

The 2025 Irish presidential election must take place by Tuesday, 11 November 2025.

This market will resolve to the individual who wins the next Irish presidential election.

If the result of this election isn't known by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market group will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the he Irish Government, specifically the Electoral Commission (An Coimisiún Toghcháin (see: https://www.electoralcommission.ie/).

Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April or May 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ahmed al-Sharaa, the President of Syria, is removed from power for any length of time between July 15,, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Al-Sharaa will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, is officially dismissed, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as leader of Syria within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Fed governor announces they have resigned or will resign between August 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that a governor announce that they have resigned or will resign. Whether they actually resign will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed governor resigns by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nepal adopts a fundamentally different governing system by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "Yes" resolution requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating a clear break in continuity in the government system of Nepal. 

Qualifying circumstances include any takeover that suspends, abrogates, or displaces the 2015 Constitution at the federal level, transfers executive power to an extra-constitutional authority (e.g., a military junta, revolutionary council, or restored monarchy), or dissolves or incapacitates core federal organs, such as the House of Representatives, beyond constitutional boundaries for sustained periods of time. Moreover, any significant change in the form of government (e.g., establishment of a monarchy, a non-secular, Hindu state, or a unitary-non-federal state) will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Non-qualifying circumstances include: changes confined to provincial or local governments, constitutional amendments validly enacted under Article 274 that do not establish a change in the form of government, or any routine political events within constitutional boundaries such as prime-ministerial resignation, cabinet reshuffle, coalition re-composition, caretaker cabinets, votes of confidence, dissolution of the House, snap elections, imposition of states of emergency, army deployments or similar.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from revolutionary, rebel, or exile groups will only qualify if the Government of Nepal no longer administers the majority of the Nepalese population within Nepal for a sustained period (This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication). 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the Nepalese government fall by September 30?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between May 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indonesia president, Prabowo Subianto, is removed from power for any length of time between September 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Prabowo Subianto will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Indonesia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Subianto out as president of Indonesia in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Javier Milei ceases to be the President of Argentina for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Javier Milei's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Argentina, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025?

The 2025 Tongan general elections will be held on November 30, 2025, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Tonga (Fale Alea ʻo Tonga).

This market will resolve according to the next Prime Minister of Tonga following the election.

Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Tonga is instated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Tonga, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

First leader out of power in 2025?

Ishiba - Japan PM
$544,572 Vol.
97%
0123456789
%

Maduro - Venezuela President
$507,530 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Trump - USA President
$1,125,874 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$524,936 Vol.
<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$583,966 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

None in 2025
$734,789 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Putin - Russia President
$578,888 Vol.
<1%

Macron - France President
$531,583 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Starmer - UK PM
$565,240 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Netanyahu - Israel PM
$525,504 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$369,548 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$355,896 Vol.
<1%

Milei - Argentina President
$291,607 Vol.
<1%

Newsom - California Governor
$237,798 Vol.
<1%

Xi - General Secretary of CCP
$666,585 Vol.
<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of NK
$276,019 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

al-Sharaa - Syria President
$427,540 Vol.
<1%

Meloni - Italy PM
$306,146 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

el-Sisi - Egypt President
$327,015 Vol.
<1%

Albanese - Australia PM
$653,542 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

First leader out of power in 2025?

Rules

First leader out of power in 2025?

Market Context

First leader out of power in 2025?

About

Related

First leader out of power in 2025?

Ishiba - Japan PM$544,572 Vol.97%0123456789%

Maduro - Venezuela President$507,530 Vol.2%0123456789%

Trump - USA President$1,125,874 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader$524,936 Vol.<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President$583,966 Vol.<1%0123456789%

None in 2025$734,789 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Putin - Russia President$578,888 Vol.<1%

Macron - France President$531,583 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Starmer - UK PM$565,240 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Netanyahu - Israel PM$525,504 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President$369,548 Vol.<1%0123456789%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President$355,896 Vol.<1%

Milei - Argentina President$291,607 Vol.<1%

Newsom - California Governor$237,798 Vol.<1%

Xi - General Secretary of CCP$666,585 Vol.<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of NK$276,019 Vol.<1%0123456789%

al-Sharaa - Syria President$427,540 Vol.<1%

Meloni - Italy PM$306,146 Vol.<1%0123456789%

el-Sisi - Egypt President$327,015 Vol.<1%

Albanese - Australia PM$653,542 Vol.<1%

Market Context

First leader out of power in 2025?

Rules

First leader out of power in 2025?

Market Context

First leader out of power in 2025?

About

Related

Ishiba - Japan PM
$544,572 Vol.
97%
0123456789
%

Maduro - Venezuela President
$507,530 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Trump - USA President
$1,125,874 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$524,936 Vol.
<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$583,966 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

None in 2025
$734,789 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Putin - Russia President
$578,888 Vol.
<1%

Macron - France President
$531,583 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Starmer - UK PM
$565,240 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Netanyahu - Israel PM
$525,504 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$369,548 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$355,896 Vol.
<1%

Milei - Argentina President
$291,607 Vol.
<1%

Newsom - California Governor
$237,798 Vol.
<1%

Xi - General Secretary of CCP
$666,585 Vol.
<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of NK
$276,019 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

al-Sharaa - Syria President
$427,540 Vol.
<1%

Meloni - Italy PM
$306,146 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

el-Sisi - Egypt President
$327,015 Vol.
<1%

Albanese - Australia PM
$653,542 Vol.
<1%