Mercedes leads trader consensus at 65.5% for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position after George Russell set the pace in FP2 at Suzuka with a 1:28.567, edging Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc amid the circuit's demanding high-speed corners. Ferrari's 33.5% share reflects Leclerc's P3 in both practice sessions and Sainz's top-six form, signaling consistent single-lap threat from their aero-efficient package. Williams trails closely at 32.6% buoyed by Alex Albon's P9/P10 results and recent qualifying momentum, like his Singapore top-five. Recent FP1 Verstappen dominance introduces upset potential, but Mercedes' floor upgrades and FP2 long-run stability drive the shift in market probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRacing Bulls 77%
Mclaren Mastercard 34%
Ferrari 34%
Red Bull 34%
Racing Bulls
77%
Mclaren Mastercard
34%
Ferrari
34%
Red Bull
34%
Williams
33%
Audi Revolut
10%
Aston Martin
10%
Cadillac
4%
Tgr Haas
1%
Alpine
1%
Mercedes
66%
Racing Bulls 77%
Mclaren Mastercard 34%
Ferrari 34%
Red Bull 34%
Racing Bulls
77%
Mclaren Mastercard
34%
Ferrari
34%
Red Bull
34%
Williams
33%
Audi Revolut
10%
Aston Martin
10%
Cadillac
4%
Tgr Haas
1%
Alpine
1%
Mercedes
66%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes leads trader consensus at 65.5% for Japanese Grand Prix constructor pole position after George Russell set the pace in FP2 at Suzuka with a 1:28.567, edging Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc amid the circuit's demanding high-speed corners. Ferrari's 33.5% share reflects Leclerc's P3 in both practice sessions and Sainz's top-six form, signaling consistent single-lap threat from their aero-efficient package. Williams trails closely at 32.6% buoyed by Alex Albon's P9/P10 results and recent qualifying momentum, like his Singapore top-five. Recent FP1 Verstappen dominance introduces upset potential, but Mercedes' floor upgrades and FP2 long-run stability drive the shift in market probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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