Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Centro Democrático (CD) for second place in the Colombia Chamber of Representatives election, with 78% implied probability, driven by consistent polling placing the party just behind the Liberal Party (PLC) in seat projections under proportional representation. In the 2022 vote, CD secured 29 seats to PLC's 32, establishing a tight race pattern amid President Petro's low approval ratings eroding Historic Pact (PH) support to marginal levels. Recent Invamer and Datexco surveys through mid-2024 show CD gaining from center-right consolidation, while PLC holds a slim lead and MIRA-CJL draws evangelical voters for upset potential at 21%. Declining PH viability elevates CD's floor, with traders eyeing 2026 pre-campaign momentum and no major shifts from recent congressional debates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCentro Democrático (CD) 78.2%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) 23.8%
MIRA-CJL coalition (MIRA-CJL) 15.0%
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) 1.3%
$57,408 Vol.
$57,408 Vol.

Centro Democrático (CD)
78%

Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
24%

MIRA-CJL coalition (MIRA-CJL)
21%

Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
1%

Partido Conservador Colombiano (Conservative)
<1%

Cambio Radical (CR)
<1%

Green Alliance (AV)
<1%

Partido de la U (La U)
<1%
Centro Democrático (CD) 78.2%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) 23.8%
MIRA-CJL coalition (MIRA-CJL) 15.0%
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) 1.3%
$57,408 Vol.
$57,408 Vol.

Centro Democrático (CD)
78%

Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
24%

MIRA-CJL coalition (MIRA-CJL)
21%

Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
1%

Partido Conservador Colombiano (Conservative)
<1%

Cambio Radical (CR)
<1%

Green Alliance (AV)
<1%

Partido de la U (La U)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Centro Democrático (CD) for second place in the Colombia Chamber of Representatives election, with 78% implied probability, driven by consistent polling placing the party just behind the Liberal Party (PLC) in seat projections under proportional representation. In the 2022 vote, CD secured 29 seats to PLC's 32, establishing a tight race pattern amid President Petro's low approval ratings eroding Historic Pact (PH) support to marginal levels. Recent Invamer and Datexco surveys through mid-2024 show CD gaining from center-right consolidation, while PLC holds a slim lead and MIRA-CJL draws evangelical voters for upset potential at 21%. Declining PH viability elevates CD's floor, with traders eyeing 2026 pre-campaign momentum and no major shifts from recent congressional debates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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