Name: Bank of Japan decision in October?
Start: 2025-09-18T23:03:28.42476Z
End: 2025-10-30T00:00:00Z

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The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2025 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref240731a.pdf).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2025 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/state_2025/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket. 

Decrease rates

No change

25 bps increase

50+ bps increase

Bank of Japan decision in October?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's October 2025 meeting.

If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its October 29, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) October 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its October 30, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the October 30, 2025 meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by December 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Will the ECB announce no change at the October meeting?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the Selic rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Central Bank of Brazil's November 2025 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its November 4-5, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/20184/nota

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their November meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's November 2025 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met during October 2025 ET:

- Federal Open Market Committee pauses
- European Central Bank pauses
- Bank of Japan pauses

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

If no statement is released by the end date of one of the listed next scheduled meetings, it will be assumed that there is no change in rate.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To+Cut+or+Not+to+Cut+October.pdf

No Cut October

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between September 18 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2025, currently scheduled for December 15–16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no relevant statement is released for this meeting by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, and no qualifying rate cut is announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by December 2025 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 28 - 29, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 28 - 29, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on October 29, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such statement happens by October 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between October 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanese Snap Election Called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Fed governor announces they have resigned or will resign between August 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that a governor announce that they have resigned or will resign. Whether they actually resign will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed governor resigns by October 31?

This market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. 

Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify.

If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”. 

If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”.

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly of a named bracket for October 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 (LS)?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Fed cuts twice
- Trump announces someone as next Fed Chair
- Powell says “Trump” during October Press Conference
- Lisa Cook is out as Fed Governor

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p3.png


Nothing Ever Happens:  Jerome Powell Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 13, 2025, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure by November 30?

On February 25, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan announced that his company is preparing to launch a USD-pegged stablecoin. You can read more about that here: https://watcher.guru/news/bank-of-america-to-launch-usd-pegged-crypto-stablecoin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bank of America (BOA) launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be officially announced and made available for transactions by BOA or a subsidiary under its direct control.

The token must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Bank of America and its representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 12, 2025, and  October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between October 1, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).  

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
 
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing another Fed Governor before their term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request between August 25 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or raise rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump try to fire another Fed Governor by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between May 19 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another US debt downgrade in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Bank of Japan decision in October?

Decrease rates
$28,823 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

No change
$32,417 Vol.
77%
0123456789
%

25 bps increase
$33,476 Vol.
18%
0123456789
%

50+ bps increase
$33,788 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Bank of Japan decision in October?

Rules

Bank of Japan decision in October?

Market Context

Bank of Japan decision in October?

About

Related

Bank of Japan decision in October?

Decrease rates$28,823 Vol.1%0123456789%

No change$32,417 Vol.77%0123456789%

25 bps increase$33,476 Vol.18%0123456789%

50+ bps increase$33,788 Vol.1%0123456789%

Market Context

Bank of Japan decision in October?

Rules

Bank of Japan decision in October?

Market Context

Bank of Japan decision in October?

About

Related

Decrease rates
$28,823 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

No change
$32,417 Vol.
77%
0123456789
%

25 bps increase
$33,476 Vol.
18%
0123456789
%

50+ bps increase
$33,788 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%