Bank of Japan Decision in April?

Name: Bank of Japan Decision in April?
Start: 2026-01-23T23:25:45.201Z
End: 2026-04-28T00:00:00.000Z

World·Japan

Bank of Japan Decision in April?

Mar 19

Apr 28

Mar 19

Apr 28

25 bps increase 55%

No change 38%

50+ bps increase 3.4%

Decrease rates 1.0%

$160,653 Vol.

Apr 28, 2026

Decrease rates

$56,001 Vol.

No change

$29,334 Vol.

38%

25 bps increase

$40,198 Vol.

55%

50+ bps increase

$35,120 Vol.

25 bps increase 55%

No change 38%

50+ bps increase 3.4%

Decrease rates 1.0%

$160,653 Vol.

Apr 28, 2026

Decrease rates

$56,001 Vol.

No change

$29,334 Vol.

38%

25 bps increase

$40,198 Vol.

55%

50+ bps increase

$35,120 Vol.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Polymarket traders are pricing a 52% implied probability for a 25 basis point rate hike at the Bank of Japan's April 25-26 meeting, driven primarily by March core CPI surging to 2.8%—well above forecasts—and robust shunto wage gains exceeding 5%, signaling sustained inflationary pressure post the BOJ's March exit from negative rates. No change holds at 37.5% as trader consensus weighs Governor Ueda's cautious signals amid yen weakness and global rate cut expectations from the Fed, tempering aggressive normalization. Slim odds for a 50+ bps move (3.5%) or cut (1%) reflect limited precedent for outsized shifts, with markets eyeing super-long bond yields and Tokyo CPI for final cues before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 17, 2026, 2:43 PM UTC

No change in Swiss National Bank policy rate after March Meeting?

99%

ECB rate cut in 2026?

34%

ECB rate hike in 2026?

49%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Japan Decision in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25 bps increase" at 55%, followed by "No change" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" has generated $160.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of Japan Decision in April?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" is "25 bps increase" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Bank of Japan Decision in April?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $160.7K traded on “Bank of Japan Decision in April?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Bank of Japan Decision in April?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 55¢ for "25 bps increase" in the "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 55% chance that "25 bps increase" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 55¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 45¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 28, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Bank of Japan Decision in April?" market has an active community of 60 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Bank of Japan Decision in April?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Bank of Japan Decision in April?

Bank of Japan Decision in April?

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Comments (60)

Top Holders

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