Name: Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-15T01:09:22.492854Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of insurrection, abuse of power, or other criminal acts stemming from his martial law declaration and related subsequent actions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2025 regardless of whether Yoon's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

South Korea’s Constitutional Court has unanimously removed President Yoon Suk Yeol from office, ruling that his declaration of martial law last year was unconstitutional. This decision, made four months after the controversial decree, marks a significant political crisis and ends months of legal and political turmoil in the country.

Yoon Suk Yeol Impeached

BREAKING: South Korean court has removed President Yoon Suk Yeol from office

BREAKING: South Korean President Yoon removed from office over martial law attempt

BREAKING: South Korea's Constitutional Court decided to oust President Yoon Suk Yeol, upholding parliament's impeachment motion over his short-lived imposition of martial law last year that sparked the country's worst political crisis in decades https://t.co/65xpRHFpZV

[BREAKING] South Korea removes President Yoon Suk Yeol. The Constitutional Court upholds Yoon's impeachment case. Vote: 8:0.

South Korea’s Constitutional Court has removed impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol from office. https://t.co/O7tirpqX5t

Yoon Seokyeol resmi DImakzulkan dari posisinya sebagai Presiden Korea.

8 dari 8 Hakim Mahkamah Konstitusi Korea setuju bahwa pemakzulan Yoon Seokyeol Konstitusional

https://t.co/Qd6NwtVAFn https://t.co/PGHTh6zCbX

🚨 BREAKING: Presiden Korea Selatan, Yoon Seok-yeol secara resmi dimakzulkan dari jabatannya. ✅

8 dari 8 Hakim Mahkamah Konstitusi Korea Selatan telah SEPAKAT. ⚖️👨‍⚖️👩‍⚖️

South Korean court removes President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over martial law saga https://t.co/VmhMq3pGB6

🇰🇷 URGENTE: Por 8 a 0, Suprema Corte da Coreia do Sul diz que “lei marcial” feriu a constituição do país e confirma impeachment do presidente Yoon Suk-yeol. https://t.co/hm7LukR6YJ

🚨SEOUL (@CNN) — SOUTH KOREA PRESIDENT YOON REMOVED FROM POWER, CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES, 4 MONTHS AFTER YOON DECLARED MARTIAL LAW https://t.co/1F5yLlUvvs

South Korean court removes President Yoon Suk Yeol from office over martial law saga https://t.co/AkDJrVrbD7

South Korea’s constitutional court upholds impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol for imposing martial law - follow live
https://t.co/SrextCasCz

Mahkamah Konstitusi Korea Selatan dengan suara bulat menyetujui pemakzulan Presiden Yoon Suk Yeol pada Jumat (04/04).

Putusan ini merupakan tindak lanjut atas dekrit militer yang diumumkan Yoon akhir tahun lalu. https://t.co/yQPDyWmDZw

BREAKING: South Korea’s Constitutional Court removes impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol from office. https://t.co/Od012sQH6b

🚨SEOUL (@CNN) — SOUTH KOREA’S PRESIDENT YOON REMOVED FROM POWER, 4 MONTHS AFTER HE DECLARED MARTIAL LAW. Constitutional Court makes *unanimous* decision, ruling Yoon’s martial law decree and sending troops to the National Assembly were both illegal.

https://t.co/0TKpRh7jI5 https://t.co/pyOgXixiy6

BREAKING:

South Korea’s Constitutional Court just ruled that President Yoon will be impeached and removed from office.

It’s a major loss for South Korean conservatives and all forces opposing China, instead favoring close relations with the USA and the West.

H/t @saber_psvm https://t.co/fnoP9dR1Qt

🚨 BREAKING: In a unanimous ruling, South Korea’s Constitutional Court has upheld Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment and dismissed him from office.

This victory belongs to the masses of our people who have struggled without rest for four months to defeat the threat of military rule. https://t.co/mVelZEXy0p

BREAKING: South Korea’s Constitutional Court permanently removes President Yoon Suk Yeol from power over his short-lived martial law

Breaking news: South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol has been removed from office, four months after his shortlived attempt to impose martial law https://t.co/iOQDbUdHsh https://t.co/Eif0e7Ojbt

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been officially impeached and removed from office, following last December’s illegal declaration of martial law and today’s 8-0 vote upholding the impeachment by the Constitutional Court of Korea. https://t.co/X4NX5Q3aRt

🔴 URGENT - La Cour constitutionnelle de Corée du Sud destitue le président Yoon https://t.co/xXup4GFeJy https://t.co/PrR8EaSgwu

Breaking News: South Korea’s top court voted to eject President Yoon Suk Yeol, upholding his impeachment for declaring martial law. 

Follow live updates. https://t.co/Lcw2T2Nhax

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol was formally removed from office by the country’s Constitutional Court on Friday over his declaration of martial law late last year ⤵️ https://t.co/PgFaCdkgT5

BREAKING: South Korea’s Constitutional Court removed President Yoon Suk-yeol from office, ruling he violated basic rights by declaring martial law https://t.co/BhP8ayA9lQ https://t.co/uthAS0qDRi

South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been released from detention after a court ruled his arrest was invalid, following nearly two months in custody on insurrection charges related to his martial law declaration. The decision has sparked significant public reaction, with supporters displaying U.S. flags to signal alignment with Western values, while the Constitutional Court will soon decide on his reinstatement or removal from office.

Yoon Released from Jail

SEOUL (@CNN) — YOON RELEASED FROM JAIL, WAVES AND BOWS TO SUPPORTERS https://t.co/3OXzvvGlwl

🚨A l’instant : le président sud-coréen, Yoon Suk-yeol, qui avait été suspendu, est sorti de prison après l’annulation de son mandat d’arrêt. https://t.co/ijeS6V7sJ5

South Korea's impeached President Yoon has been released from detention

President Yoon is released! https://t.co/KP81y0R4XU

President Yoon Suk-yeol finally released from jail after illegal and sinister delay. https://t.co/qcSdBYFN2l

🇰🇷 | AHORA: El presidente de Corea del Sur, Yoon Suk Yeol, es liberado de prisión tras ser destituido.

BREAKING:

Video of South Korean President Yoon leaving jail after 5 weeks behind bars.

Notice the many U.S flags held by his supporters. They’re there to show the world that Yoon aligns with the U.S. and West, unlike his opponents who favor Beijing

Via @Real_Politik101 https://t.co/imMaQRYanB

BREAKING:

South Korean President Yoon was just released from jail after 5 weeks behind bars.

It’s a victory for the “Stop the Steal” movement and a defeat for the pro-Chinese element in South Korea.

🇰🇷 https://t.co/UTWHaR8oo1

BREAKING: South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol released from prison

South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol freed from prison after canceled arrest https://t.co/tpjwPfXKZs

Thank God, President Yoon has been released and returned to the presidential residence 52 days after his arrest. 
Now, the war against anti-state forces begins in earnest! 

#StopTheSteal #PresidentYoon 🇰🇷 https://t.co/O5nus23RMM

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, who lawmakers voted to impeach after declaring martial law, has been freed from detention
https://t.co/sEQnP29srT

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, who lawmakers voted to impeach after declaring martial law, has been freed from detention
https://t.co/73RwZCoCKQ

BREAKING: South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, who lawmakers voted to impeach after declaring martial law, has been freed from detention

🚨🇰🇷BREAKING: SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT RELEASED FROM PRISON

South Korean prosecutors won’t appeal the court’s decision to release President Yoon Suk Yeol, who walked free from the Seoul Detention Center today.

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) condemned his detention as https://t.co/qWKPnnoA3s https://t.co/fxffV2b7VD

❗️Huge cheers as Yoon WALKS out of prison, bows to chanting crowds https://t.co/SPDfCo3w0O https://t.co/XmLp43Mwwk

Drama in South Korea continues.

President Yoon is temporarily released from prison after five weeks of detention. 

The Korean Constitutional Court is expected to decide in coming days whether to reinstate him or remove him from office.

The US is definitely playing a big role https://t.co/8FtxWa6VSd

PRESIDENT YOON SUK YEOL IS WALKING OUT OF JAIL RIGHT NOW. LFGGGGGGGGG. HE IS CURRENTLY WAVING AND BOWING TO HIS SUPPORTERS WHO WERE WAITING OUTSIDE THE JAIL CELL AS WE SPEAK. WE MISSED YOU MR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/oAUPnip6YG

BREAKING: South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been released from prison, TV footage on Saturday showed. https://t.co/JllZHF3AAN

South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been released from prison a day after a court cancelled his arrest warrant https://t.co/yuP0FRC2Hh https://t.co/WAf655C3Pd

Yoon earlier today on his way out https://t.co/pXGCqTExZO

BREAKING: President Yoon just released a statement "I thank the courage of the court for standing against illegal acts and making the correct decision. I pray everyone else unjustly jailed for insurrection will be released too. Thank you to the PPP Leadership and the people for https://t.co/cxQhAWpMVA https://t.co/H5M4qLs26m

Breaking News: South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, was released after a court ruled he had been detained illegally. He still faces insurrection and other charges. https://t.co/RekelDJt9q

🇰🇷 South Korean prosecutors have decided to release President Yoon Seok-yul following a court ruling that overturned the request to extend his detention. He left the pretrial detention center today, according to Yonhap News Agency. The court ruled the arrest was illegal due to https://t.co/N9I2b8E3tW

BREAKING: JUSTICE MINISTRY HAS RECEIVED THE "ORDER TO RELEASE YOON" AND BEGUN THE PROCESS FOR HIS RELEASE FROM DETENTION, ACCORDING TO NEWS1. https://t.co/fUMe0aWdzm

yoon dowoon😭🤍 https://t.co/wjvjOXMuOy

🔴 URGENT - Corée du Sud : le président suspendu Yoon sort de prison après l'annulation de son mandat d'arrêt https://t.co/0kaUlta9kV https://t.co/7mSUJAKdJI

South Korea’s Impeached President Yoon Released From Detention

https://t.co/vEsvqhcSWJ https://t.co/feIpbNtYoV

President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law has sparked intense national debate, with supporters viewing it as a critical move to save the country from crisis, while opposition forces, led by the Democratic Party, propose establishing a special tribunal for insurrection and increasing Supreme Court justices. Pro-Yoon factions rally under the 'Yoon Again' slogan, likening current events to historical military operations like the Incheon Landing, and express strong anti-China sentiments alongside calls for American support.

Yoon Declares Martial Law

[속보] 민주 ＂내란특별재판소 설치·대법관 증원 국민 논의하자＂ (출처 : 뉴스1 | 네이버 뉴스) https://t.co/3awgpEfIcG

"요즘 돌아보면, 그때 계엄령이 선포된 건 정말 다행이었다고 느낀다. 대한민국의 심장이 멈추기 직전, 윤 대통령이 온몸을 바쳐 마지막 기회를 만들어낸 것이나 다름없었다."
무조건 윤어게인!
#YOONAGAIN https://t.co/vAu1L1F1qW

드디어 때가 오고 있네요
더 더 분탕치기바랍니다

그래야 내부의 적도 
일거에 척결 하지요

인천상륙작전은 이미 
출발했습니다

현존하는 대한민국 영웅은
#윤석열 #김용현
두 명 뿐입니다

그 외에는 누구도 영웅의 반열에
오를 수 없습니다

시간이 지나면 자연스레 드러납니다 https://t.co/nDOPSHDhiS

1.트럼프는 꾸준히 타이밍을 노리고있음. 쓰잘데없는간섭은 친중세력의 결집을 가져다온다

2.대중전략의 모든카드를가지고있음 -그중하나가 12.3짱퀴간첩체포-그리고 중공만 개박살 내버리면  국내 친중세력은 저절로 말라죽을것임

3.장기적인 인내를갖고 꾸준히 Yoon Again 외쳐야   미국이돕는다 https://t.co/ALHEd5id44

갑시다! 빨갱이들 잡으러!!!

제2의 인천상륙작전, 우리가 주력이다!!!

YOON AGAIN!!!
ONLY YOON!!! https://t.co/Krr1MlSerR

South Korea faces political turmoil as the Constitutional Court deliberates President Yoon's impeachment, with public opinion heavily favoring his removal at 58% according to recent surveys. The opposition party leverages the crisis, demanding government cooperation on wildfire relief in the southeastern region in exchange for approving their nominated constitutional judges.

Yoon Impeachment Crisis

Is the Constitutional Court’s ruling on President Yoon’s impeachment today March 27th? 

Because in my world, I’ll have moving Jiwon for Bvlgari. 

Oh we have ‘that’ presscon as well. 

Don’t forget, the deadly wildfires in Southeastern region in South Korea too 🔥🔥

The South Korean opposition party said it would cooperate with government in combating the wildfires on the condition that the government approves the constitutional judges nominated by the opposition party to impeach Pres Yoon. Last year, the opposition party cut the entire

NBS (National Barometer Survey) - Mar. 24-26

- Party popularity

🟥 PPP 36 (+4)
🟦 DPK 36 (-2)
🔷️ RKP 7 (-)
🟧 Reform 3 (+2)

- Presidential election - Gov. Or Opp

🟥 Government 37% (+1)
🟦🔷️🟧 Opposition 51% (-)

- View on Yoon's impeachment

✅️ For 58% (-2)
❎️ Against https://t.co/qT0EFcTIgZ

The novelist Kim Cho-yeop said, “I demand Yoon’s quick removal, please. I’m so stressed I can’t write a word these days. Quickly, please!”

https://t.co/1YolDnBDvr

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Choo Kyung-ho spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between September 4 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Choo Kyung-ho spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Choo Kyung-ho in jail by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested  or detained by law enforcement between March 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye (Kanye West) is arrested between April 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kanye West arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chungin (Roy) Lee serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 9 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Lee Jae-myung impeached in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between August 19 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if member of the National Assembly Lee Jun-seok is arrested or detained by law enforcement between August 20, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Lee Jun-seok arrested by September 30?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is sentenced to life in prison, with or without the possibility of parole, for convictions in the case United States of America v. Sean Combs (Case No. 1:24-cr-00542) by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Combs is sentenced to a specific number of years (e.g. 150 years) that would have him in prison past the end of his natural lifespan, this market will not resolve to "Yes" — only a sentence explicitly described as life in prison will qualify.

Only a sentence that includes incarceration will qualify. Suspended or symbolic life sentences will not count.

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding this case. Any appeals or subsequent changes to the sentence will have no bearing on resolution.

If Diddy's ongoing trial ends (e.g. mistrial) without the rendering of a sentence, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Diddy be sentenced to life in prison?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025?

On August 20, rumors emerged that Mikey Shelton was behind the crypto token $YZY.
 
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Mikey Shelton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Mikey Shelton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hayden Davis serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 16, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hayden Davis in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if owner of Barstool Sports David Scott Portnoy, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Dave Portnoy in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Barack Obama by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Obama federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between January 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Will Trump be impeached in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy convicted?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Odell Beckham Jr., serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use

Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione formally agrees to a plea bargain for any of his murder or terrorism charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As they stand on February 21, qualifying charges are:
Federal - Murder through use of a firearm
State - Murder in the first degree, murder in the second degree as a crime of terrorism, murder in the second degree

If all of these charges are dropped or dismissed, or otherwise changed to charges that involve neither murder, manslaughter, nor terrorism, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials, only resolving once this market's resolution date has passed.

If a verdict is reached on all named charges, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is the ruling court in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Luigi Mangione plea deal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams is arrested between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stacey Abrams be arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un is removed from power for any length of time between January 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Kim Jong Un will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Cheney serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Liz Cheney?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is arrested between August 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gavin Newsom arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, North and South Korea engage in direct talks, defined as an official meeting or communication between government representatives of both sides, conducted without a third-party relaying messages, by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The talks may be in-person, by phone, or virtual, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by credible media. 

Routine military deconfliction, backchannel exchanges, or talks conducted entirely through another country or organization will not count. 

The resolutions source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: South Korea's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not part of the military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. 

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. 

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of  the listed individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in 2025”.  No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between June 25 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China coup attempt in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Sean "Diddy" Combs as part of his ongoing federal trial (United States of America v. Sean Combs, Case No. 1:24-cr-00542) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Combs is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government or court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is expected to appeal the case. You can read more about that here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq40yz70qo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marine Le Pen receives a reduced sentence as a result of a formal appeal decision by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 A reduced sentence includes any official change that lessens the severity or length of the original sentence, such as a shorter prison term, a reduced fine, or restoration of Le Pen's eligibility to run for public office.

The reduced sentence must apply to the referenced case, where she was convicted of "Abuse of Public Funds".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public between August 25 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only files which were created prior to the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET) will qualify. 

Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the South Korean government officially designates Sejong as the national capital by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Designation must come through the passage of a constitutional amendment that names Sejong as the capital.

Other actions that legally and officially make Sejong the capital of South Korea under South Korean law will qualify only if they remain legally valid through the resolution date without being overturned, blocked, or declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will South Korea move its capital to Sejong in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed that Skye Valadez is the individual responsible for the shooting of Charlie Kirk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A “Yes” resolution requires one of the following:
- Formal arrest or charging of Skye Valadez by a recognized law enforcement agency in direct connection with the shooting
- Official statements by law enforcement naming him as the shooter or primary suspect
- An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming him as the shooter or primary suspect. 

Any of the above will independently qualify, conviction is not required to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Rules

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?

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