Name: Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?
Start: 2025-09-04T03:38:01.444089Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine has its Biologics License Application (BLA) approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) revoked by the FDA or is voluntarily withdrawn for reasons related to health, safety, or efficacy by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Withdrawing approval solely due to seasonality, low demand, or an emergency ending will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Similarly, a reduction in the scope of approved recipients, without fully eliminating the approval will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution."

The resolution source will be official FDA announcements and guidance published on the FDA website (see: https://www.cdc.gov/acip-recs/hcp/vaccine-specific/).

Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC has completely ended its recommendation for the listed vaccine, meaning it no longer recommends it for any category of individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A reduction in the scope of recommended recipients, or the removal of a recommendation for a specific type of vaccine for the listed disease (e.g. CDC removal of the recommendation for the live oral polio vaccine in 2022) without fully eliminating the recommendation will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official CDC announcements and guidance published on the CDC website (see: https://www.cdc.gov/acip-recs/hcp/vaccine-specific/).

Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) announces that he will resign from his position as United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), or otherwise ceases to be HHS Secretary for any length of time, between September 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by RFK Jr. or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against H5N1 receives full FDA approval between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the FDA, including their official list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states).

Bird flu vaccine in 2025?

On February 21, a bat coronavirus that has the capacity to spread to humans, known as HKU5-CoV-2, was reportedly discovered (See: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-discovers-new-bat-coronavirus-that-poses-risk-of-animal-to-human-transmission/3489013)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against HKU5-CoV-2  receives full FDA approval between February 20, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the FDA, including their official list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states).

Vaccine for new COVID disease in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. publicly announces that he or an affiliated team has identified a definitive cause of autism between April 18 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If RFK Jr. identifies multiple causes, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source will be announcements from RFK Jr., however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of pharmaceuticals into the United States by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting pharmaceuticals will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on pharmaceuticals from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Federal Reserve is formally abolished by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed abolished in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if  the State of Florida enacts any legislation or if the Governor issues a statewide executive order that explicitly bans mandates requiring individuals to receive mRNA vaccines. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The ban must apply to at least some private employers, public institutions, healthcare providers, and must specifically reference mRNA vaccines or a defined category that includes them. Temporary emergency orders or proposed bills that do not become law will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Florida bans mRNA vaccine mandates in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New pandemic in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Rabby, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) or provides official written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the WTO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of withdrawl refers to the submission of a written notice of withdrawal as per Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization (https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/wto_agree_art15_oth.pdf).

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and the WTO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 1,500 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Weed rescheduled in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Fed governor announces they have resigned or will resign between August 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that a governor announce that they have resigned or will resign. Whether they actually resign will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Fed governor resigns by October 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Anthropic is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Anthropic and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Anthropic and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." 

If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." 

For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between September 1, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).  

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
 
Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in September?

On April 4, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which prohibits TikTok in the United States, until September 17, 2025 (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/further-extending-the-tiktok-enforcement-delay/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between July 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government.

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will TikTok be banned in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between September 18 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27–28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no relevant statement is released for this meeting by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, and no qualifying rate cut is announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?

On April 4, China implemented a series of restrictions on the export of a variety of rare earth metals. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Chinese government officially lifts, removes, or reduces any of the export restrictions placed on rare earth metals on April 4, between July 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The issuance of a qualifying official act by China within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or reduction of the stated export ban does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between September 13, 2025, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between July 2 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.


Nuclear weapon detonation before October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between January 1  and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.


Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing another Fed Governor before their term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request between August 25 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or raise rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump try to fire another Fed Governor by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?

On August 11, 2025, the United States and China announced a 90-day extension of a mutual reduction in tariffs as part of a temporary trade de-escalation agreement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between August 12, and November 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend the 90 day tariff reduction announced on August 12, will qualify.

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Railbird will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with DraftKings (DraftKings Inc.) by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Railbird or DraftKings will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DraftKings or Railbird; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any previously classified files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained arial phenomena by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?

Order Book

Market Context

Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?

Rules

Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?

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Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?

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