Name: Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?
Start: 2025-09-15T18:19:02.237238Z
End: 2025-09-28T00:00:00Z

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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Moldova on September 28, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity; Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate) controls a majority of seats in the Parliament of Moldova as a result of the next Moldovan Legislative Election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală, CEC) (https://a.cec.md/en).

Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Moldova on September 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity; Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of party list votes received by PAS and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election. 

If the PAS does not win a plurality of party list votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală, CEC) (https://a.cec.md/en).

Will PAS win by between 8-12% of the vote?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Moldova on September 28, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the parliament of the Republic of Moldova (Parlamentul Republicii Moldova) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Moldova election for the parliament does not occur by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală, CEC) (https://a.cec.md/en).

Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Moldovan government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place September 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the incoming government passes a confidence vote and is formally appointed in by the president.

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) be part of the next Government of the Moldova?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- ANO wins the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election
- Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga wins the 2025 Bolivia presidential election
- LLA wins the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election
- Party for Freedom wins the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
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https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/right+2.png

Elections go right: October

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic. 

If voting in the next Czech election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).

Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SPOLU wins 20% or more of all valid votes in the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).


SPOLU wins 20% or more of vote in Czech election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to according to the popular vote share won by the listed Party/Coalition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).

Will ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SPD wins 14% or more of all valid votes in the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).


SPD wins 14% or more of vote in Czech election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025.

This market will resolve to according to the popular vote share won by the listed Party/Coalition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).

Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?

Will Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote in the Czech election?

Far-right populist candidate for President of Romania Călin Georgescu has been charged as part of an ongoing investigation for election campaign fraud amidst a contentious election. You can read more about it here: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/society-people/law-crime/prosecutors-charge-calin-georgescu-with-incitement-fraud-promoting-fascist-ideas/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Călin Georgescu is found guilty of any charges related to the 2024/2025 Romanian Presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In the event that all charges are dropped or vacated, a mistrial is declared, or all ongoing investigations/cases are otherwise ended without a guilty verdict, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first verdict rendered for each charge. Subsequent appeals, etc., will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025?

Will Přísaha get less than 3% of the vote in the Czech election?

Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?

Will STAČILO! get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?

Will Starostové get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve based on the total percentage of all votes cast out of the number of people entitled to vote in the 2025 Czech parliamentary election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket.

This market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of the Czech Republic (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).

Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pirates (Piráti) wins 10% or more of all valid votes in the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).

Pirates wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?

Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election to become the next elected Mayor of Bucharest. 

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the by-election will not be considered. 

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ANO wins 33% or more of all valid votes in the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).


ANO wins 33% or more of vote in Czech election?

The 2025 Lisbon local election will be held on October 12, 2025. Each party or group puts forward a list of candidates, and the list with the most votes makes its top candidate the mayor.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who is elected mayor.

If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Lisbon.

Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic by October 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ANO is part of the first ruling coalition that forms after that election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will stay open until a new government of the Czech Republic is officially installed. If no new government is instated by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on official information from the government of the Czech Republic, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will ANO form a government after Czech election ?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if STAN wins 10% or more of all valid votes in the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If voting in the next Czech parliamentary election does not occur by August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based off the official vote count as reported by Czech Republic’s government (e.g. via https://www.volby.cz/index_en.htm).


Starostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?

Will Piráti get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Malawi on September 16, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Malawian government, specifically the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) (https://mec.org.mw/).

Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held in 2025?

The 2025 election for half of the seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies as a result of the upcoming election.

If voting in the next Argentine election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of held won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Argentina's government (e.g. via https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php).

Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called in 2025?

The 2025 election for half of the seats in Argentina's Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to be held on October 26, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of the seats that are contested in this election.

If voting in the next Argentine election for the Chamber of Deputies does not occur by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. 

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Argentina's government (e.g. via https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php).

Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Party for Freedom (PVV).

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Czech Republic following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Czech Republic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Poland initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Belarusian soil or any official Belarusian embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Polish military forces that impact Belarusian ground territory or any official Belarusian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Belarusian soil is hit by a Polish missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Belarusian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Polish ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Polish strike on Belarus by September 30?

The Netherlands will hold general elections on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democrats 66 (D66) party wins 10% or more of all valid votes in the next Dutch parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

If voting in the next Netherlands parliamentary election does not occur by March 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).


Democrats 66 (D66) win 10% or more of votes in Netherlands election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called in 2025?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Guinea has scheduled a referendum to adopt a new constitution and begin a return to civilian rule for September 21, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://www.africanews.com/2025/07/03/guinea-presents-draft-for-new-constitution-referendum-set-for-september/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referendum passes with the requisite voter turnout threshold met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".​

If the referendum is permanently canceled or delayed beyond January 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Guinea, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the 2025 Guinea referendum pass?

On September 8, François Bayrou was ousted as French PM after losing his confidence vote. After being appointed, the new Prime Minister may voluntarily ask for a vote of confidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next French confidence vote passes between September 8 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 If no vote is called by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Next French confidence vote passes?

NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace on September 10. For more information see here: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/09/europe/poland-scramble-jets-russian-drone-reports-intl-hnk-ml 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government or military of Poland reports another Russian aerial vehicle (e.g., aircraft, drone) violated Polish airspace between September 12, 4 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements by the Polish government (e.g., press releases or statements published on official government websites).

Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. 

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.  

A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?

The New York City mayoral general election is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani wins over 50% of the votes cast in the general election for Mayor of New York City in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no general election for Mayor of New York City occurs by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results are otherwise unknown by that date, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York City Board of Elections, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the third most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Council (Kiesraad) (https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Note: If the GL/PvdA alliance splits and announce they will not run a joint list, this market will refer to the Labor Party (PvdA).

Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?

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Market Context

Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?

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Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?

Order Book

Market Context

Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?

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