Name: Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-16T16:11:04.908313Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

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Improved notification preferences and types.

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mobile_trading_v2

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Enable updates from the sports websocket.

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Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Improved websocket for market trade data.

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On January 16, it was reported that Maverick Carter is seeking $5 billion to start a professional basketball league intended to compete with the NBA. You can read more about it here: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/investors-seek-5-billion-to-form-basketball-league-to-rival-nba-051441296.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-based professional basketball league or organization seeking to directly compete with the NBA raises more than $3 billion USD in funding by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, minor leagues, regional leagues, or leagues that explicitly act as feeder leagues to the NBA will not qualify as competitors.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from a qualifying organization, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?

This is a market to predict which player will win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the award is not announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com).

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is traded to another NBA team, or signs a contract to play in the 2025-26 NBA season with a team other than the NBA team they last played for during the 2024–25 NBA season, between May 12 and October 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the listed player retires, the market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the NBA (https://www.nba.com). 

Will Julius Randle join a new team this offseason?

Recent posts on X indicated that Meek Mill is looking for investors for an app. You can see more about that here: https://x.com/MeekMill/status/1962925141496598797

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meek Mill or a business or app he is directly involved with (via equity, employment, ownership, etc) receives funding from AH Capital Management, LLC (a16z) by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Funding" means a completed investment or transfer of cash, equity, convertible instruments, or in-kind resources. The transfer of some amount of resources must actually have occurred for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Meek Mill and a16z, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Meek Mill gets a16z funding in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team wins the 2025 WNBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 WNBA Finals based on the rules of the WNBA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the WNBA.

Will the Minnesota Lynx win the 2025 WNBA Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if LeBron James is traded by the Los Angeles Lakers to any other NBA team by October 1, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If LeBron James is involved in a sign-and-trade to another team, this market will resolve to "Yes".

If LeBron James opts out of his contract and signs with a new team, but is not traded, this market will resolve to "No".

If LeBron James retires, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers or LeBron James, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will LeBron James be traded this offseason?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zion Williamson is traded to another NBA team, or signs a contract to play in the 2025-26 NBA season with a team other than the New Orleans Pelicans, between June 26 and October 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If Zion Williamson retires, the market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the NBA (https://www.nba.com). 

Will Zion leave the Pelicans before next season?

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football American Conference Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football American Conference Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football American Conference Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tulane win the 2025 American Conference Championship Game?

This market will resolve according to the next NBA team that Jaylen Brown is either traded to, or signs a contract with (via free agency or sign-and-trade).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jaylen Brown is signed or traded to the listed team. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If Jaylen Brown signs a new contract with the Boston Celtics to play for them in the 2025–26 NBA season, or is not traded or signed by a new team by October 1, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Boston Celtics.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Boston Celtics keep Jaylen Brown?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Western Conference Finals based on the rules of the NBA.

If the 2025-26 NBA Western Conference Finals winner is not announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of December 31, 2024 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.

-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition

An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
 
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify. 

If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.

Major U.S. bank bailout in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Eastern Conference Finals based on the rules of the NBA.

If the 2025-26 NBA Eastern Conference Finals winner is not announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

Recent posts on X indicated that Meek Mill is looking for investors for an app. You can see more about that here: https://x.com/MeekMill/status/1962925141496598797

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meek Mill launches an app advertised as making use of Artificial Intelligence by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only an AI app which is confirmed to have been launched by or in affiliation with Meek Mill, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Meek Mill releases AI app in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between April 30, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the market capitalization of the largest publicly traded company in the world. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." 

Market cap values for both BTC and companies will be taken directly from Google Finance. If Google Finance is unavailable, a consensus of credible financial data providers will be used.

Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cluely achieves a public valuation of $1 billion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 billion or more between June 30 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Cluely or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be Cluely's official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely $1B valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No".

If the listed team qualifies for the playoffs early, the market will resolve to "Yes". 
If the listed team is eliminated based on the rules of the competition, the market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs?

On January 28, Visa announced a partnership with X for a 2025 launch of 'X Money'. The service will allow users to, among other things, secure funding for their X Wallets, perform P2P payments, and transfer funds to their bank accounts. You can read more about that here: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/x-partners-with-visa-to-launch-x-money-later-this-year/3464796

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches 'X Money' between January 27 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If 'X Money' is made publicly available for a majority of US users exclusively through purchase or X premium it will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Limited betas will not qualify.

The feature does not have to be titled 'X Money' for this market to resolve to "Yes" so long as the feature provides one or more of the named services.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X Money launch in 2025?

This is a market to predict which MLB teams qualify for the 2025 playoffs. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team qualifies for the 2025 MLB playoffs, as defined by Major League Baseball's official playoff format. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes all teams that qualify for the playoffs via division title or wild card, in either the American League or National League. The total number of playoff teams will be 12 (6 from each league: 3 division winners and 3 wild cards).

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MLB (mlb.com), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the San Diego Padres make the 2025 MLB playoffs?

This market will resolve according to the next NBA team that Jonathan Kuminga is either traded to, or signs a contract with (via free agency or sign-and-trade).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jonathan Kuminga is signed or traded to the listed team. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If Jonathan Kuminga signs a new contract with the Golden State Warriors to play for them in the 2025–26 NBA season, or is not traded or signed by a new team by October 1, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Golden State Warriors.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Phoenix Suns be Jonathan Kuminga's next team?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Big 12 Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Big 12 Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football Big 12 Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will BYU win the 2025 Big 12 Championship Game?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?     

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Boise State win the 2025 Mountain West Conference Championship Game?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? 

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Liberty win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game?

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football Mid-American Conference Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eastern Michigan win the 2025 Mid-American Conference Championship Game?

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Sun Belt Conference Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the 2025 NCAA Football Sun Belt Conference Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Louisiana win the 2025 Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB National League (ie advances to the 2025 MLB World Series). 

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the National League based on the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated from the playoffs), this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If the 2025  MLB season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.


Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Ohio State win the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No".

This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB American League (ie advance to the 2025 MLB World Series). 

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the American League based on the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated from the playoffs), this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If the 2025  MLB season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.


Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 American League Championship?

This is a polymarket to predict which player is drafted #1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

If the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled or not completed by July 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Nico Iamaleava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BasedApp's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for BasedApp is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $1M in 2025?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Ole Miss win the 2025 SEC Championship Game?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. 

The resolution source will be public announcements from OpenAI.


Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Phantom is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 450 million subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI shifts from its current capped-profit corporation structure to a for-profit model by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any form of fully for-profit organization—including a Benefit Corporation (B-Corp), Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), or a modification to its existing structure to remove profit caps—will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If the OpenAI non-profit relinquishes control over the for-profit business, this will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

An announcement indicating that OpenAI is merely considering the shift will not suffice; the change must officially occur.

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football ACC Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football ACC Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football ACC Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Virginia Tech win the 2025 ACC Conference Championship Game?

On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative.

The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team advances to the Round of 16 of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top 24 of the league phase), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?

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Market Context

Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?

Rules

Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?

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