Name: Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?
Start: 2025-05-05T15:54:29.145985Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hillary Clinton announces that she is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election between May 5, 2025, 11:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Clinton must definitively state her intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Hillary Clinton (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chelsea Clinton announces she will run for Congress, either the House or the Senate, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Chelsea Clinton or her representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.


Will Chelsea Clinton announce run for congress by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between July 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Former United States Vice President Kamala Harris announces that she is running for Governor of California in the 2026 midterm election, between June 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between June 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lara Trump announces that she is running for United States senator from North Carolina in the 2025 midterm election, by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Lara Trump will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually files a nomination to run, or whether she later files a nomination.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Lara Trump (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Lara Trump announce NC senate run before Oct?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stephen A. Smith announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Stephen A. Smith must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Stephen A. Smith (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stephen A. Smith announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces that she is running for Senate in the 2026 midterm election, between April 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by AOC will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by AOC (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AOC announces senate run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President JD Vance announces that he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Vance must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for President" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by JD Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will JD Vance announce Presidential run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Trump divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces that he is running for President of Brazil in the 2026 presidential election, between August 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Lula will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Lula (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Casey DeSantis announces that she is running for Governor of Florida in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial Election, between February 28 ET, and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Casey DeSantis will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

If Casey DeSantis definitively states that she will not run for governor, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Casey DeSantis (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Casey DeSantis run for Florida Governor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, however if there is any ambiguity in the results this market will resolve according to official information from New York City.




Will the Democratic candidate win the  NYC mayoral election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Barack Obama by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Obama federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place in 2025 or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell provides live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between January 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Will Trump be impeached in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff announce their intention to divorce between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of sexual misconduct between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump engaged in sexual misconduct, or clearly describe behavior that meets that description. Sexual misconduct includes, but is not limited to, sexual harassment, sexual assault, unwanted advances, infidelity, affairs, or pedophilia. Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made by Maxwell and made public within the specified date range.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of sexual misconduct?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce between January 16 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Obama divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public between August 25 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only files which were created prior to the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET) will qualify. 

Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris announces that she will vote for Zohran Mamdani or endorses Mamdani for the 2025 NYC Mayor election between June 26, and November 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Kamala Harris announces that she will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for NYC Mayor, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kamala Harris or one of her representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Kamala Harris's endorsement.

Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex and/or Meghan, Duchess of Sussex announce their intention to divorce between December 30, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Harry and/or Meghan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Nancy Pelosi between August 1, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nancy Pelosi federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace prize. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person/entity, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.

Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.

US civil war in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorses for the 2025 NYC Mayor election.

If Trump does not announce an endorsement by  November 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No endorsement".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and explicitly endorses at least one person as a candidate for New York City mayor between June 25, and November 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

for the purpose of this market, An endorsement is defined as a clear, public statement that communicates Trump’s support for a specific individual to be elected mayor of New York City.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump announces that he will vote for Eric Adams or endorses Adams for the 2025 NYC Mayor election between June 26, and November 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for NYC Mayor, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Chris Christie charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between February 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hailey Bieber announces that she is pregnant between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Hailey Bieber or her representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cluely announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Cluely.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Cluely declare bankruptcy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

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Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

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Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Hillary Clinton announce she's running for president in 2025?

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