Market icon

Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?

$2,861 Vol.

Senate

39% chance

Rules

Additional context

Updated Oct 1

This market's rules have been updated to reflect its title. All trades made prior to October 1, 2025, 3:15 PM ET, will be refunded.

This market will resolve to “Senate” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve to “House” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

If no funding bill is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Partial or symbolic actions, such as introducing a bill without passage, will not qualify. The determination will be based strictly on the final passage of the funding bill that is ultimately signed into law.

If both chambers pass the qualifying bill on the same calendar day, the chamber whose roll call vote was completed earlier according to Congress.gov timestamps will be deemed to have moved first.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$2,861

End Date

Oct 31, 2025

shield

Beware of external links.

$2,861 Vol.

Market icon

Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?

Senate

39% chance

About

Additional context

Updated Oct 1

This market's rules have been updated to reflect its title. All trades made prior to October 1, 2025, 3:15 PM ET, will be refunded.

This market will resolve to “Senate” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve to “House” if the first funding bill signed by the President after October 1, 2025, was first passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

If no funding bill is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Partial or symbolic actions, such as introducing a bill without passage, will not qualify. The determination will be based strictly on the final passage of the funding bill that is ultimately signed into law.

If both chambers pass the qualifying bill on the same calendar day, the chamber whose roll call vote was completed earlier according to Congress.gov timestamps will be deemed to have moved first.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$2,861

End Date

Oct 31, 2025